BTC:USD DAILY UPDATE (day 146)
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Yesterday’s analysis/position: Regained confidence in my position due to div' in OBV and lack of follow through from bulls above $7,500. Short from $7,398 with stop loss at $7,826.
Patterns: Triangle and trend
Horizontal support and resistance: Strong R: $7,766 Strong S: $6,800. Weak S: $7,318
BTCUSDSHORTS: Violated 20,000 support and quickly rebounded.
Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +8.36% 26: +11.74%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: +14.95% 128: -1.45%
FIB’s: 0.382 = $8,448 0.236 = $5,789
Candlestick analysis: Trading above top wick of reversal candles which is concerned for bears.
Ichimoku Cloud: Re entered daily cloud. E2E' = $8,684. 3d cloud = $10,400. 12h has bullish TK’ Cross, recent bullish kumo twist, LS above price and last candle had a kumo breakout. C clamp on 4h.
TD’ Sequential: Green 8 on daily. Green 2 above green 1 on weekly. Green 3 above green 2 on 3day. Green 3 on 12h.
Visible Range: 24h: last bit of resistance at $7,740. Biggest volume profile at $7,680 - $7,700. 5d: largest volume profile at $7,440 with almost nothing from $7,740 - $7,800. Monthly: largest volume profile at $7,400 with a gap between $7,400 and $6,800. Very little volume between $7,700 - $7,800 should mean very little resistance. Longer the price stays there without a sharp breakout the more it smells like a bull trap. 1 year: shows huge volume from $7,800 - $10,000. This is single handedly enough reason for me to stay away from longing until >$10,000
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +2.80% 24h: +2.80% 1w: +15.56% 2w: +22.46% 1m: +26.41%
Bollinger Bands: Still hugging top band and looks like it needs to return to the MA before breaking through $7,800. Testing MA for resistance on weekly.
Trendline: “Third touch confirms trend” Currently making third touch on trendline that connects 3/5/18 to 5/6/18.
Daily Trend: Bullish.
Fractals: Just broke up fractal. Next one is $7,800. Down = $6,066
On Balance Volume: Starting to trend upward significantly over the past 24 hours almost removing bearish divs’. Higher time frames look healthy.
Chaikin Money Flow: Significant bear div' shows waning buying pressure. Violated 0 as price consolidating over past couple days. Has made a higher local high. Currently testing 0.05 for resistance. If it cannot break though that area it would be very significant.
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View (counter trade): Oscillators = buy MA’s = strong buy Summary = Buy
RSI = 69.9 (overbought)
Stoch = 86.4 (overbought)
Summary: 10 days ago everyone was bearish. After going up for a week and a half everyone seems to have turned bullish. That is exactly what markets do. As soon as the weakest hands feel comfortable opening a long then the market will start to move in the other direction. We are overbought and at resistance. In a bear market that presents a great opportunity to sell/short.
Most important indicators: 8 on the daily sell setup, resistance cluster from: trendline, 128 day MA, 20 week MA, the top of the daily Bollinger Band and the MA from the weekly BB. The RSI and the Stoch are overbought. Those are the reasons I remain confident in my position.
Patterns: Triangle and trend
Horizontal support and resistance: Strong R: $7,766 Strong S: $6,800. Weak S: $7,318
BTCUSDSHORTS: Violated 20,000 support and quickly rebounded.
Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +8.36% 26: +11.74%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: +14.95% 128: -1.45%
FIB’s: 0.382 = $8,448 0.236 = $5,789
Candlestick analysis: Trading above top wick of reversal candles which is concerned for bears.
Ichimoku Cloud: Re entered daily cloud. E2E' = $8,684. 3d cloud = $10,400. 12h has bullish TK’ Cross, recent bullish kumo twist, LS above price and last candle had a kumo breakout. C clamp on 4h.
TD’ Sequential: Green 8 on daily. Green 2 above green 1 on weekly. Green 3 above green 2 on 3day. Green 3 on 12h.
Visible Range: 24h: last bit of resistance at $7,740. Biggest volume profile at $7,680 - $7,700. 5d: largest volume profile at $7,440 with almost nothing from $7,740 - $7,800. Monthly: largest volume profile at $7,400 with a gap between $7,400 and $6,800. Very little volume between $7,700 - $7,800 should mean very little resistance. Longer the price stays there without a sharp breakout the more it smells like a bull trap. 1 year: shows huge volume from $7,800 - $10,000. This is single handedly enough reason for me to stay away from longing until >$10,000
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +2.80% 24h: +2.80% 1w: +15.56% 2w: +22.46% 1m: +26.41%
Bollinger Bands: Still hugging top band and looks like it needs to return to the MA before breaking through $7,800. Testing MA for resistance on weekly.
Trendline: “Third touch confirms trend” Currently making third touch on trendline that connects 3/5/18 to 5/6/18.
Daily Trend: Bullish.
Fractals: Just broke up fractal. Next one is $7,800. Down = $6,066
On Balance Volume: Starting to trend upward significantly over the past 24 hours almost removing bearish divs’. Higher time frames look healthy.
Chaikin Money Flow: Significant bear div' shows waning buying pressure. Violated 0 as price consolidating over past couple days. Has made a higher local high. Currently testing 0.05 for resistance. If it cannot break though that area it would be very significant.
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View (counter trade): Oscillators = buy MA’s = strong buy Summary = Buy
RSI = 69.9 (overbought)
Stoch = 86.4 (overbought)
Summary: 10 days ago everyone was bearish. After going up for a week and a half everyone seems to have turned bullish. That is exactly what markets do. As soon as the weakest hands feel comfortable opening a long then the market will start to move in the other direction. We are overbought and at resistance. In a bear market that presents a great opportunity to sell/short.
Most important indicators: 8 on the daily sell setup, resistance cluster from: trendline, 128 day MA, 20 week MA, the top of the daily Bollinger Band and the MA from the weekly BB. The RSI and the Stoch are overbought. Those are the reasons I remain confident in my position.
Not
BTC looks like it is one leg behind the alts.
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