Nearing Significant Milestone. Close of Weekly Candle.

28 Nis 2018

Following my previous analysis of Bitcoin-US Dollar, BTCUSD XBT, a few observations are noted:

Bulls maintain overall confidence despite the strong sellers that lurk in the background. Bitcoin reaches its significant milestone, that is the close of the current weekly candle, and which will be determining of the longer trend. A few scenarios to anticipate:

In the short term:

• Bulls maintain confidence - We can anticipate a supply band due to previous Daily support/resistance (S/R), and resistance from the longer bearish trendline, which spans across the tops of the peaks of our bull-trap movements since January 2018.
  
• Bears overtake confidence - Should we break the lower (rising) trendline (from the channel, broken to the upside) we can anticipate a supply band forming in the 8300 ~8600 range.
  

In the long term:

• Bulls close the weekly candle - Should bull maintain short term confidence, we can anticipate a supply band up as high as 10500, perhaps even as high as 10800. Of course, any smart bull will wait for a retracement to a support before pursuing the rally up ;).
  
• Bears close the weekly candle - Should the bears overtake short-term confidence, we can anticipate the current cross-roads we've been to be prolonged. We should be looking to see where Bitoin's price-action will lead into and neutralize at.
  

As we anticipate some significant decisions to be made on Bitcoin, every effort should be made to mitigate losses.

Best Practice: Determine stop-loss prior to entering trade, and ensure that it remains respected.

~CryptoShaman.

29 Nis 2018

Not

Bulls maintain lead, maintaining BTC above 9000. Bulls are nearing the supply band; we can anticipate either:

- Activate more buyers by the help of some bullish volume. Volume is a big determining factor to validate a price action through and above the supply band. The current momentum coupled with the fact that we have not broken the trend line to the downside, favours the bulls.

- Should we at any point break our trend-line to the downside, or should we get rejected from the supply zone, we have a few big supports to anticipate the price to react with, on the downside. Our longer bullish strength will be tested should we struggle to maintain 9000 as the floor.

The end of the current weekly candle is a big indicator or signal to buyers and sellers that are undecided, we will have to look at volume of orders coupled with a direction, to determine strength in the longer-run.

As for now, I maintain a short-term bull, long-term neutral. I am looking for indications of change on the current short-term moves of Bitcoin.

~CryptoShaman.

30 Nis 2018

Not

Bulls are loosing steam and strength to bears, despite maintaining overall short-term sentiment.

Bitcoin is struggling to break and hold above 9400, and if we achieve lower highs on the 4-hour, a correction down to lower supports is anticipated

Short-term and Long-term are now both Neutral.

A few considerations:
No trade entries or exits during Neutral market sentiment. I will look for volume + movement to pre-determined levels to enter or exit trades. Most importantly, remove any personal bias from trades, because the future will always remain uncertain/unpredictable. A traders best chance is an educated guess formulated using probabilities of outcome.

~CryptoShaman

1 May 2018

Not

My commentary from yesterday remains intact, that is we are in a Neutral market both short-term and long-term, contingent on further price action and volume to determine next steps, and except one observation, that buyer confidence is dropping, so is buyers momentum.

~CryptoShaman

2 May 2018

Not

We remains more Neutral than ever, as it meanders between 8900 to 9000. We will have to see a a decisive move to either supply or demand bands to be able to change our Neutral outlook.

Ultimately, for a longer trend to be set, either bearish or bullish, we need a move supported by volume. An implication of a ranging market is short term trends become less pronounced, therefore, it would be reasonable to assume that any rally supported by volume will likely establish a more pronounced trend.

Closing remarks: A healthy approach to trading is to keep an open mind to ideas that do not necessarily aligned with those of ours, and as an effort to minimize personal bias. If you have a comment, or would like to discuss your thoughts relative to my thoughts posted here, then please leave a comment below. Always appreciated.

~CryptoShaman