Gold reacts positively to the NFP and might retest highs

In the context of trade wars and particularly direct rhetoric between the USA and China, ‘risk off’ remains clear across most markets, which works in gold’s favour. 7 March’s NFP wasn’t very significantly weaker than the consensus but in the overall context of sentiment seems to have given gold and major currencies a boost against the dollar. A fairly large majority of around 85% of participants expects the Fed to cut the funds rate in June with a significant minority expecting a cut as early as May.

As yet, it’s not clear whether the bounce over the last few days is a new phase of the ongoing uptrend or part of the same which started around the end of December. Compared to the situation around the middle of last month, further gains might seem more favourable now because volume has increased slightly and the price is no longer overbought. $3,000 remains the obvious target if the latest high around $2,950 is broken.

If not, it might be possible to see the price retreat to the swing low from the end of February around $2,850. Fundamentals and sentiment make the development of a new downtrend questionable but consolidation and sideways movement are possible in the short term, especially if 12 March’s inflation is close to expectations.

This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.