XAUUSD: Until the end of Greek debt crises, targets R1212&1238
Well, on the very big picture, there is no change in the trading policy of XAUUSD. The general trend is still on the downside. However, there is a new situation in the market. The Greek Stress, and the "disappointing" US Datas.
Well Disappoiting US data is good for FED, because FED has no room of manoeuvre in order to play with the exchange rate against EUR. Despite no increase of interest rate, because of the end of FED's QE and ECB's start of QE, USS has gain a tremendous value that is damaging US export. Therefore bad datas means that FED will keep its low interest rate beyond September 2015.
On the other hand, Greece is polluting the debate in Europe and since there is no agreement on Greece Reform, there is a stressed situation where Traders are turning themselves towards GOLD which is crises period can appear to be a "safe heaven" if you know how to react quickly. Therefore a cheap dollar and tension on the market will favor GOLD.
1212 may be the initial target, and 1238 the secondary target until 11th of May. After that date, if there is an agreement with Greece and the groupe of Brussels, no problem, if not, then , we will have to expect Gold going above 1280 towards 1303 and above. But we are not there yet. Because of there is no agreement by May 11th on Greece reform, it will mean that Greece has collapsed.
Well Disappoiting US data is good for FED, because FED has no room of manoeuvre in order to play with the exchange rate against EUR. Despite no increase of interest rate, because of the end of FED's QE and ECB's start of QE, USS has gain a tremendous value that is damaging US export. Therefore bad datas means that FED will keep its low interest rate beyond September 2015.
On the other hand, Greece is polluting the debate in Europe and since there is no agreement on Greece Reform, there is a stressed situation where Traders are turning themselves towards GOLD which is crises period can appear to be a "safe heaven" if you know how to react quickly. Therefore a cheap dollar and tension on the market will favor GOLD.
1212 may be the initial target, and 1238 the secondary target until 11th of May. After that date, if there is an agreement with Greece and the groupe of Brussels, no problem, if not, then , we will have to expect Gold going above 1280 towards 1303 and above. But we are not there yet. Because of there is no agreement by May 11th on Greece reform, it will mean that Greece has collapsed.
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