Buying bias near exhaustion / Crossroads of the Short-term

5 Eki 2022

Gold's general commentary: Bond Yields panic continues as Investors (as the usual practise confirms) use Gold as a Safe-haven. Final Resistance got compromised and if Gold closes the session above it (#1,727.80 mark) it is sign of Bullish continuation, if not, everything is ready for Bearish correction. Personally, with RSI above classic consolidation Rectangle approaching critically Overbought levels and DX still on parabolic downtrend, I doubt that I will see some Bearish action throughout today’s session. Friday's session Gap is filled, Daily chart got the necessary Technical correction as I should be seeing a continuation of the downtrend back towards the Support belt priced at #1,680.80 - #1,692.80. That would be on any other occasion however as due to Fed tightening speculations and cautious sentiment ahead of NFP, market is not under normal conditions. This is obvious as DX is Trading below Daily chart’s Support aiming to yet another local Low’s (struggling to make Bullish comeback) and Bond Yields on a spiral downtrend. This piles more Buying pressure on Gold regarding Short-term. In my opinion Bond Yields are they key along with the DX, if they extend their recovery (and DX makes its first Bullish Daily chart’s candle) Gold will follow its Technical Bearish course towards fair Technical Price (Medium-term). Otherwise it will have to be postponed until end of the week. I am not willing to Buy Gold as these are Fundamentally driven sessions, and Technical rules don’t apply much in similar situations.


Technical analysis: So far a rather flat Daily chart candle (# -0.65% on Spot prices) as the Gold market is attempting to find a balance between the falling Bond Yields (Bullish for Gold) and Neutral DX (stalling the uptrend), following general uncertainty on all market classes. Technically though and on a Hourly 4 basis, Gold is still Bullish near Lower High's Upper and Lower zone unless #1,727.80 breaks (last Lower High's). The Hourly 4 chart's Top is seen Trading at #1,727.80 - #1,734.80 and is representing the Medium-term Resistance zone. The Daily chart regained complete Neutral status and can deliver A Selling signal, but to prevent unexpected scenarios, I will wait for full confirmation (since last #4 out of #5 times since April #29, Gold stalled the uptrend on excellent Bullish bias) and is too dangerous to approach current market sentiment without strict Risk management. Don’t be surprised if Gold stays Neutral throughout today’s session as real trend is likely to be revealed within #2 sessions. Do not forget that next Friday contains NFP announcement and the real Medium-term trend (Bearish) is likely to be revealed then on the aftermath.


My position: As Gold is Trading on Inflated prices, I am expecting equally strong Selling rally ahead to correct huge Bullish sequence / relief rally that Traders witnessed. I am very fine with the decision to remain on sidelines as Trading on purely Fundamental gradient is not very wise decision to make. I preserved my capital very satisfied with my Yearly Profits where I comfortably await the chance to re-Sell Gold towards #1,600.80 mark once again. That pattern may appear or near Resistance zone rejection or market closing below #1,700.80 mark. My Medium-term Targets remain #1,600.80 and #1,588.80 configuration in extension.