Analysis of XAUUSD Trend Next Week: Interweaving of Bullish and

This week, the gold market has shown a highly remarkable performance. The spot gold price once surged strongly and broke through the historical high of $3,004 per ounce. Although it subsequently retreated to some extent, the weekly gain remained quite notable, vividly demonstrating the robust market momentum. Looking ahead to next week, the gold market will be influenced by a complex web of multiple factors, and its price trajectory is fraught with uncertainties.

I. Impact of News

(A) Geopolitical Situation
The U.S. decision to levy a 200% tariff on European wines has stoked profound concerns within the market regarding the potential further deterioration of the global trade landscape. The exacerbation of trade frictions typically heightens market risk - aversion sentiment substantially. Gold, as a traditional haven asset, generally stands to benefit from such circumstances. Additionally, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks has been commanding significant market attention. Should the talks culminate in a substantive peace accord, market risk - aversion sentiment is likely to experience a sharp decline, thereby exerting downward pressure on the gold price. Conversely, if the talks collapse or progress falters, the haven demand for gold is expected to escalate further.

(B) Economic Data and Policies
The performance of U.S. economic data wields a pivotal influence over the gold price. Recently, the emerging changes in U.S. economic data have lent a certain degree of support to the gold price. Simultaneously, the market's anticipations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction are in a state of continuous flux. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a policy meeting from March 18th to 19th. Prior to this, it enters a quiet period. The consumer price index (CPI) data for February, set to be released next week, will emerge as the central focus of the market. If the core CPI registers a month - on - month increase of 0.2% or less, it might significantly fuel market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in May, thus powerfully driving up the gold price. Conversely, if the data records an increase of at least 0.5%, it could markedly enhance the allure of the U.S. dollar, rendering the upward movement of the gold price more challenging.

Furthermore, the improvement in global risk sentiment has also exerted a certain degree of suppression on the haven demand for gold. When global stock markets perform robustly and investors' risk appetite surges, funds tend to flow away from haven assets like gold and into risk - on assets. For instance, the recent substantial rallies in the U.S. stock market and the across - the - board upswings in the European stock markets have both exerted a bearish impact on the gold's price trend.


II. Technical Analysis
(A) Daily Chart Level
This week, the daily chart of gold presented a robust three - consecutive - day upward streak, convincingly highlighting the formidable strength of the bulls. In terms of the moving average system, the gold price closed above the 20 - day simple moving average for the majority of this week, clearly signaling an upward short - term trend. Meanwhile, the relative strength index not only successfully pierced through the 50 - level but also advanced further towards the 60 - level, indicating a strong market condition. However, currently, the RSI is edging close to the overbought zone, suggesting a high probability of profit - taking in the short - term.

Analyzing through the lens of Fibonacci retracement, the confluence of the upper trend - line resistance and the Fibonacci 2618 level occurs in the vicinity of 3025. This area will emerge as a crucial resistance level for the gold price's upward movement next week. If the gold price manages to breach this resistance zone successfully, it is likely to further unlock the upward potential and strive for higher historical highs. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that on Friday, the gold price experienced a rapid retreat upon reaching the 3,000 - level, underscoring the intense profit - taking pressure among the bulls at this key psychological threshold. The 2,956 level below, which represents a bottom - to - top conversion point, becomes a vital support level. Should the gold price retrace to around this level and secure effective support, the bullish trend stands a good chance of persisting. Conversely, if the gold price breaks below this support level, it may trigger a more extensive retracement.

(B) Hourly Chart Level
During the U.S. trading session on Friday, the gold price underwent a relatively mild correction, bottoming out at 2,978. At present, the hourly moving average system exhibits a bullish golden - cross upward pattern, indicating that the bullish forces still hold sway in the short - term. Nevertheless, vigilant attention must be paid to the evolution of the moving average system. Should the moving average system reverse its course next week, it may signify a waning of the bullish momentum. Designating the 2970 - 2975 range as the bull - bear demarcation line, if the gold price can maintain stability above this range, it will offer favorable trading opportunities for short - term bulls. Once the gold price drops below this range, it may weaken at any moment and initiate a retracement.


III. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Recommendations
Taking into account both the news - driven and technical aspects, the gold market's trend next week will be shaped by the intricate interplay of bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, the uncertainties in geopolitical risks and the market's expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut furnish the internal impetus for the gold price to ascend. On the other hand, the improvement in global risk sentiment and the profit - taking pressure on gold at elevated levels concurrently pose a certain degree of constraint on the gold price.

For investors, during the trading activities next week, it is imperative to closely monitor the release of key events and data. Prior to the data release, the market is likely to adopt a cautious stance, and the gold price may exhibit relatively subdued fluctuations. Particular attention should be directed towards the market's response subsequent to the release of the February CPI data. If the data aligns with expectations, trading operations can be executed in line with the gold price's trend. For example, if the data is bullish for gold and the gold price breaks through the key resistance level around 3025, appropriate consideration can be given to chasing long positions. Conversely, if the data is bearish for gold and the gold price breaks below the critical support level of 2956, short - selling positions can be prudently considered.
From a technical vantage point, if the gold price retraces to the vicinity of the 2970 - 2975 range at the onset of next week and receives effective support, a modest long - position entry can be attempted. Set the stop - loss order below 2965, with the target set at the 3000 - 3025 area. If the gold price surges directly to around 3025 and encounters resistance and retraces, short - selling positions can be contemplated near this location. Set the stop - loss order above 3,030, with the target set at the 2975 - 2956 area.

It is crucial to emphasize that the gold market is characterized by extreme volatility. During trading, investors must stringently control their positions, rationally set stop - loss and take - profit levels, and effectively safeguard against significant losses that could be precipitated by sudden market shifts.



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