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GOLD Analysis (LIVE UPDATES)

Hi Fellow Traders :)

My bias is that we are in a final C leg for the bigger correction of ABC on the weekly/Monthly Timeframe.

Hence, within this C leg down it's either an
1. Impulsive 5 wave or
2. A 5 wave diagonal.

With this in mind, i have created the following set up that takes both of these scenarios into consideration.

Now onto the current shorter/medium term analysis:

Given: We can see an obvious 4 hour Head & Shoulders Pattern in which price has broken below the Neckline. This means that price can travel along the distance of the vertical Red line.

If this is the case, then it coincides with the "Impulsive 5 wave" down. This gives me more confidence and merit to lean more towards this move.
However, Regardless if the proceeding pattern is an impulsive 5 wave or diagonal, it seems as though price needs to create an ABC correction for both of these larger patterns.
1. Diagonal: ABC creation to form point D of wedge/triangle/diagonal.
2. To form Wave 2 of Wave 3 inside the bigger Wave 3 (as specified in the yellow text box above)

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Now to look in closer to this ABC correction:

We have the final C leg up now.

I have placed two thick horizontal black bars as the targets based upon ABC correction projections.
Each target coincides with the swing high to swing low's 50% and 61.8% retracement which are great Fibonacci retracements that suit our criteria for this smaller Wave 2 Completion.

Now it could also tap off the Trendline to give us the indication of a point off the Wedge to suit the bigger pattern of a 5 wave diagonal.

I personally still believe this is a 5 wave impulsive move down and that price will pierce below the bottom line of this trendline (while a lot of people might think price will reject off the trendline and go up again, leading to price possibly stopping everyone out).

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More Scenarios (Shorter Term):
Price could retrest this Head & Shoulders neckline while at the same time wicking Target 1 before the drop.

However, Price could go ABOVE the H&S neckline and tap off Target 2 before dropping (touching the trendline and touching the 61.8%)
I think with this move, for those that haven't drawn the trendline, it might fool some traders that just have the H&S pattern drawn out as psychologically it will show that price has broken back up above the neckline, hence giving conviction to a buy or bull trap before the drop.

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I've got this possibility on the 4hour with the ABC already completed and as you can see has already touched target 1.
We probably have already begun wave 3... Let's see how it goes from here.

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Or we could have this..

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This is another potential set up i see.

2 pictures ago i stated that the ABC could have been already completed. That could be the case, however i personally am not 100% convinced about it. We will see however. I want price to reject off this area. The reason being is that the B wave can be any corrective structure. It's always a tricky thing this wave B Corrective.
Still have 2 targets above if it does decide to shoot up above.

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I also see this possibility aswelll.

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Keep it simple guys, this looks like a downtrend move.

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30min. Looking for continuation of support breaks and downtrend moves/structure.

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Two thick lines above for targets to end LEG C of ABC correction before the drop below

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I've got these projections - Coincides with 50% and 61.8% respectively and in turn, coincides with fib targets of this Zig Zag ABC correction i see. Also touches the trend line.
Zig Zag targets touch one of either 50% and 61.8% perfectly

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1min. looking for the move up from here.

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With macd cross and divergence

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If price continues to break down then i see this set up instead

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Broke above, testing...

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We are in a trading range guys and gals, must be careful.

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I'm waiting to buy on the 3rd tap of the bottom trendline to create point E and therefore completing WAVE B Correction (Wave B burns a lot of traders as it's the most difficult. Price can form any corrective pattern).

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We could see something like this

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2 different target zones both with great confluence. Scroll up for the analysis behind the confluence zones.

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False breakout possibility for the bigger triangle move

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This is my wave count. Once this C leg is complete (bigger B completion), looking for a sharp move up to complete leg C. Must keep in mind, if the move up is 3 wave corrective then it could still be in a wedge/diagonal in which we will create point D.

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Learning lesson: We are in a downtrending market so i should have known that corrections were to be quick and shallow instead of deep, especially in a bigger wave 3.
Must be wary of this: mental note made.
Play with the trend. Odds will be in your favour.

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Price already met Target 1. Upon further analysis of new ABC drawn can see it meets the count criteria and also touches the target.

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Trend continuation.

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