Gold (xauusd) weekly update 15-19.24

14 Oca

In my opinion gold formed one of the reversal patterns last week and the medium term the target is the all time high. We may see some pullbacks, I have marked my buying zones where there is a concentration of previous manipulation.

In the last two weeks, NFP and CPI have been very bearish for gold, but every time gold fell, the banks bought. You know what the pros say: "If the news is bearish/bullish and the price does not react, then something is wrong".




Macroeconomics
NFP and other reports were higher than expected. These results were expected because of the Christmas period, when temporary workers are needed. We saw last week that the banking sector is going to lay off thousands of employees and that is the real picture of the employment situation.

The CPI also showed that inflation is a bit higher. This could be because of the Christmas period again, when people travel more and buy more. In fact, inflation fell in January.
Another strong factor for inflation is the money supply. It has risen a little, but it needs time to have an effect on inflation. Right now it is too early.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Acro9iWz/

The FOMC meeting showed that the FED is becoming a bit more dovish. Also future projections fell a few points. In fact, the last time the FED announced their plans and thoughts, gold skyrocketed.

The current tension between Israel and Hamas is also a bullish factor for gold. If there are new attacks, gold will rise quickly.




Swing projection

https://www.tradingview.com/x/j4IeUBrF/

January is usually a bullish month for gold. When gold is in a bullish trend (as it is now), it has always closed above 2%.




Benchmark
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZYXeyV2Y/
The benchmark indices have risen sharply, supporting my bullish stance. We also see that gold has actually risen against other currencies.




COT Reports
https://www.tradingview.com/x/R2CjJN0b/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JDhUslJ0/

There are not many bullish orders yet, but we have seen such a phenomenon in the past when banks bought after a bearish NFP and a week after the profis. We will have to see how the orders change next week.



US Yields
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6PEjLWsc/

Yields are going down, especially 2Y. This is very good sign for a rising gold.




XAUUSD vs GDX
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ssDHUnee/

Divergences have worked in the past. It seems that these two charts are about to diverge again.




Gold vs Silver
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1rUlNPtq/

Divergence again. As I expected last week, silver is reacting to the manipulation area.





Elliot Wave

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QwDEYzOC/

My current projection is bullish.


Wyckoff
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DKtoQnyf/

So far, my forecast has been correct. I expect a bullish outcome.


Momentum
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tLh7yXsH/

The momentum seems to be turning bullish again.