XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis (15M TF) – Wave (4) Forming, Short

🟡 XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis (15M TF) – Wave (4) Forming, Short Setup in Play
📅 Date: May 16, 2025
📈 Instrument: Gold (XAU/USD) – 15M Chart
🔍 Technique: Elliott Wave, SNR, Fibonacci, AO Convergence

✅ Wave Count Summary
We have a clean 5-wave Elliott structure unfolding:

✅ Wave (1), (2), and extended Wave (3) are completed.

🔄 Price is now in a Wave (4) pullback phase.

🔽 Anticipating a final push down for Wave (5).

🔍 Wave (4) Confluence Zone (Short Setup)
Price is currently approaching a strong confluence zone around 3196, which includes:

📌 Confluences at 3196:
🔴 SNR (Support-Turned-Resistance): Historical reaction level

🌀 Fibonacci Retracements:

0.618 of wave (3) = 3171.6

1.618 Fib Extension (minor internal leg) = 3198.81

Several Fibo clusters between 3195–3200

📐 Dominant Break occurred previously → retest likely

🕯️ Bearish Reaction Expected: Monitor for reversal candlesticks near this level

💡 This is the ideal entry zone for Wave (5) shorts.

📉 Wave (5) Bearish Target Projections
Using Fibo projections from Wave (3) to (4), expect:

Target Level Description Price Zone
🎯 TP1 100% of Wave (1) extension ~3154.80
🎯 TP2 Full Wave (5) extension zone ~3135–3140

📊 AO Divergence may signal Wave (5) completion as momentum fades.

💼 Trade Setup Idea
(For educational purposes – follow your own strategy & confirmation rules)

Parameter Value
Entry Zone 3195–3198 (SNR + Fibo)
Stop Loss 3206–3210 (above structure)
TP1 3155 (safe zone)
TP2 3135 (extended target)
Risk–Reward ~1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on SL

📌 Confirmation Tips:

Wait for bearish engulfing or pin bar near 3196.

Watch for AO turning red = sign of bearish momentum resuming.

🧠 Conclusion
Wave (4) looks to be maturing near the 3196 SNR/Fibo cluster, with a bearish reaction expected to kickstart Wave (5). This setup offers a great R:R opportunity if confirmed by price action. Patience and confirmation are key — don’t front-run until a rejection forms.

📈 Let the chart do the talking. Trade what you see.