Analysis and strategy of the latest gold trend on July 4:

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1. Non-farm data exceeded expectations, gold fell under pressure
The US non-farm payrolls data in June was strong, with 147,000 new jobs (expected 110,000) and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% (expected 4.3%), showing that the labor market is still resilient. This data reduced the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in the short term, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and gold was under downward pressure.
Although the wage growth rate (annual rate of 3.7%) was slightly lower than expected, the overall employment data still supported the Fed's wait-and-see attitude, and gold may continue to be suppressed in the short term.

2. Technical analysis: shock adjustment, pay attention to key support and resistance
Daily level:
Gold previously stood on the middle track for three consecutive days, showing that the short-term bullish momentum was strong, but on Thursday, it closed negatively due to the negative impact of non-farm payrolls, forming a K-line with a long lower shadow, indicating that the market still has buying support.
If the 5-day moving average (near 3320) can be maintained today, it may rebound again; if it falls below the support of 3310-3300, it may further pullback.

4-hour level:
Gold is currently oscillating in the 3327-3360 range, 3345-3355 is short-term resistance, and 3310-3300 is key support.
MACD momentum weakened, RSI fell back to the neutral area, if it falls below 3310, it may test the support of 3275-3280.

3. Today's trading strategy
Short-term operation (intraday):
Long at low first, short at high later:
Long near the support level of 3320, target 3340-3350, stop loss below 3310.
Short at the resistance level of 3345-3355, target 3320-3310, stop loss above 3360.
If it falls below 3310, it may further drop to 3300-3280. You can consider shorting the trend.

Mid-term trend:
If the gold price stands above 3360, it may challenge the resistance of 3370-3400.
If it falls below 3300, it may enter a deeper adjustment, with a target of 3275-3250.

4. Market focus
Fed policy expectations: If subsequent economic data (such as CPI, retail sales) continue to be strong, gold may be further under pressure.
Geopolitical risks: The situation in the Middle East and US-EU trade frictions may still provide safe-haven support.
US dollar trend: If the US dollar index continues to strengthen, the upside space of gold will be limited.

Conclusion: Gold will remain volatile and bearish in the short term, and range trading is recommended in terms of operation.

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Analysis of the latest gold trend next week:

Analysis of gold news: Friday (July 4) coincided with the US Independence Day holiday, and gold prices were in a narrow range of fluctuations. Strong employment data not only pushed up the US dollar and US bond yields, but also significantly weakened the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's early rate cuts, which greatly reduced the attractiveness of gold. At the same time, the US Congress passed the Trump administration's massive tax cut and spending bill, further injecting complex variables into the economy. There will be no key data to watch today. Due to the US Independence Day, all markets will close early, which will limit the fluctuation range of gold prices.

Key technical signals:
Daily level:
Range fluctuations: Gold prices repeatedly tested in the 3320-3360 range, the Bollinger band narrowed, and the MACD kinetic energy column shrank, indicating that the market was in a wait-and-see mood.
Key support/resistance:
Support: 3320 (5-day moving average), 3300 (psychological barrier + Bollinger lower track).
Resistance: 3350-3360 (non-agricultural starting point + daily middle track).

4-hour level:
Short-term bottoming signs: After the non-agricultural data, the gold price fell to 3322 and then rebounded, forming a double bottom prototype, but it needs to break through 3350 to confirm the reversal.
RSI is neutral (around 50) and may maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.

2. Next week's market deduction
1. Baseline scenario (oscillation and consolidation, 60% probability)
Trend: The gold price fluctuates in the 3320-3360 range, waiting for CPI data to guide the direction.
Operation strategy:
Short-term high-sell and low-buy:
Long order: Long at around 3320-3325, stop loss 3305, target 3350.
Short order: Short at 3350-3360 under pressure, stop loss 3370, target 3320.

2. Bullish breakthrough scenario (30% probability, CPI data required)
Trigger conditions: CPI is lower than expected (such as below 3.2%), the market re-bets on interest rate cuts, and the US dollar weakens.
Trend: After breaking through 3360, it may test 3380 (200-day moving average) or even 3400.
Operation strategy:
Break through and chase long: Follow up after stabilizing 3360, target 3380-3400.

3. Bearish breakout scenario (10% probability, need continued strength of the US dollar)
Trigger conditions: CPI is stronger than expected (such as more than 3.5%), and the Fed's hawkish remarks suppress expectations of rate cuts.
Trend: After breaking below 3300, it may test 3260 (June low).
Operation strategy:
Break through and follow short: After breaking below 3300, chase short, target 3260.

III. Trading strategy and risk management
Short-term trading (suitable for intraday positions)
Shock strategy: Buy high and sell low in the range of 3320-3360, with strict stop loss (10$-15$).
Breakout strategy: Wait for CPI data and follow the trend. If it breaks through 3360, chase longs or if it falls below 3300, follow shorts.
Mid-term layout (pay attention to the trend after CPI)
If CPI is positive: set up long orders at 3330-3340, with a target of 3400.
If CPI is negative: set up short orders at 3350-3360, with a target of 3260.
Risk warning
Liquidity risk: Speech by Fed officials (such as Powell) may trigger short-term sharp fluctuations.
Geopolitical risk: Sudden conflicts or banking crises may trigger safe-haven buying, breaking the technical logic.
4. Summary and key points
Core range: 3320-3360 (maintain the idea of oscillation before breaking through).
Long-short watershed:
Breaking through 3360 → opening up space to 3400.
Breaking through 3300 → opening a downward trend to 3260.