NO MORE INCENTIVE # 3-2

31 Eki 2023

WARNING - This is a follow up of previous work. I have stopped "around the clock continuous updates" with expanded notes and details. This is all you get until next one. As a precaution, first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, second rule of trading is don't forget first rule. As usual, this is meant to supplement not replace your trading discipline and risk management. As always, when price moves against stated plan and updates have not been provided, just scrap the plan and trade defensively until new updates.

HEADER - This is the weekly picture one week out. Generic here means the general DIRECTION AND SHAPE. Looking like a very bearish 3 days shaping up. Tomorrow is FOMC.

SUMMARY - First see previous post on how I got here, especially end of #3-1. The two blues top left are from #3 and #3-1. The darkest blue is a massive dog. Oranges are a combined 8.5:1.5. Darker orange is favorite. Far right light orange is just prep for next week. Pay ATTENTION to the declining resistance trend line. It should dominate price action this week.

FOR THE RECORD - Replay #3 and #3-1 for frame of reference.

1) for two charts above:
2) not terrible for this new once per day format
3) should do even better once I've made all adjustments for it here on out
4) this one (#3-2), should be way stronger than first two

31 Eki 2023

Not

1:20 PM MISSING ONE THING, CONSIDER:

1) for chart above:
2) this move is the remainder of of the orange path from #3-1
3) I forgot to adjust for it so be aware

31 Eki 2023

Not

4) for the noobs, that doesn't mean it price should do that
5) even if it's going to, we CAN'T EXPECT that
6) it simply means that the move should be somewhat weaker than the "orange favorite in chart at top

31 Eki 2023

Not

2:10 PM ET 1983.xx THAT'S IT FOR THIS POST UNTIL #3-3, BUT I LEAVE YOU WITH:

1) for chart above:
2) this is 150-day extrapolation
3) what I think I know is this
4) from 01/10-03/08, THERE WILL BE a massive move
5) we just need figure out which way
6) but as stated in #3-1, for bulls to shut bears, price to need to be at
7) the HIGH AREAS OF THE BLUE HILIGHTS where I put that line
8) but price DOES NOT move in a straight line
9) so if this week plays out, that dashed blue path HAS TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT for bulls to regain bull position
10) right now it's bears more than 6:4

31 Eki 2023

Not

11) that means if this week plays for bears and its 1981.xx as I type
12) bulls need to take price to 2160 3-4 times in November and December to regain bull position
13) if we stay under 2010 for the entire way to Jan 10, 2024...
14) 1680 for March 2024 or worse

31 Eki 2023

Not

3:48 PM ET THE TRIPPLE BOTTOM WARNING:

1) if it goes that exact route to FOMC...
2) then the result should be ALL THE WAY back up

1 Kas 2023

Not

8:06 PM NEXT STEP SEEMS LIKE 1977-ISH IN 4 HOURS

1 Kas 2023

Not

9:50 PM ET FLOOR ALMOST IN IF NOT IN ALREADY:

1 Kas 2023

Not

9:57 PM ET THERE IT IS:

1 Kas 2023

Not

10:17 PM ET -- THE CURVE FOR REVERSAL UP, THE TRIPLE BOTTOM, IS STILL LIVE.
1) it's just going to "look different"
2) instead of having a wide triple bottom as shown in the chart earlier
3) it's just going to be a more "compressed tripple bottom" with A FOURTH ONE coming at FOMC
4) so while orange routes are less than about 3:1, maybe 4:1 vs bull reversal...
5) their odds have not gotten better since 2:30 PM, if anything it's worse
6) bc at 2:30 PM it was 8:2 and now it's more like 7.5:2.5

1 Kas 2023

İşlem elle kapatılmış

THIS POST HAS ENDED, BUT CONSIDER:

1) for chart above, that's the shape of the revesal now
2) it looks legit for a 3:1 underdog
3) I will post #3-3 sometime tomorrow PM more likely, to let FOMC play out
4) but bear kiss of death at FOMC in chart at top still our base case

1 Kas 2023

Not

5) 10:32 PM ET 1979.XX, unless THIS MOVES TO 1973 in 90 minutes

1 Kas 2023

Not

6) 6) the decision to move DOWN OR NOT will get made by 10:45 PM ET

1 Kas 2023

Not

12:22 AM ET, 11/02, 1975.XX, 1974.80 ICE/IDC XAUUSD TICKER AT 12:16
1) so 104 min but got close to 1973
2) it's hard to see it going any lower from here
3) this move has statistically eliminated the bull reversal
4) but the kiss of death above the trend line still very much in play
5) now there will two highs tomorrow, one around 8 AM and 1 PM
6) short the second one

1 Kas 2023

Not

9:45 PM ET HERE IS NEXT POST #3-3

a) I am aware that current post #3-2 is still playing well
b) I can not use "update feature" to deliver updates
c) so I have move on to #3-3 with minor but super important changes