GOLD: Technical outlook and review.

19 Ağu 2014

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly TF: Price still remains trading between the weekly supply area above at 1391.97-1328.04 and a nice-looking weekly decision-point level below at 1244.04; however, current trading action is taking place nearer the weekly supply area for the time being.

• Daily TF: Price is capped between the daily S/R flip level at 1292.52 and a daily decision-point level at 1318.96. If a break above is seen, watch for price to likely test daily supply at 1344.91-1333.55, conversely, a break below could see a drop in price down to a major daily S/R flip level at 1277.36.

A pending sell order has now been set just under the 4hr S/R flip level (1304.77) at 1304.21, since the sellers seemed to have proved this level by consuming most of the sellers around the minor low marked with an arrow at 1297.23.

Ideally what we want to see now is price rally higher to our pending sell order (level above), and then drop down to the 4hr decision-point level at 1290.72. We believe most of the demand/buying pressure has already been consumed from price pushing below the aforementioned low, and the next set of active buy orders are likely sitting around the 4hr decision-point level just mentioned, making it a great target, our second target will be the more sturdy looking 4hr S/D flip area situated just below at 1284.77-1280.53 which is where we currently have a pending buy order set just above at 1285.71.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (1258.40-1264.53) at 1266.09. The reason a pending buy order has been set here, is because this area in our opinion remains the overall origin of a big rally to the upside, likely meaning there are a lot of unfilled buy orders siting in and around this area.
• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the 4hr S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71. We have set a pending buy order here since the buyers have proved this to be an area of interest (they traded above the high marked with a green flag at 1297.20 – which was at the time a requirement for a pending buy order to be set), so for the time being we are now awaiting a return back to this area where our pending buy order will likely be filled in the process.
• No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the 4hr S/R flip level (1304.77) at 1304.21. The reasoning behind setting a pending sell order here is simply because the sellers (which was the requirement at the time) consumed some of the buyers around the low marked with an arrow at 1297.23, thus likely clearing the path south down to around the 4hr decision-point level at 1290.72.
• P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen just below the 4hr R/S flip level (1323.04) at 1321.55. We have set a P.A confirmation sell level here simply because price could easily break above this level, and head for the 4hr supply area at 1342.30-1335.74, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1266.09 (SL: 1256.40 TP: Dependent on price approach) 1285.71 (SL: 1278.53 (TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation levels are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1304.21 (SL: 1310.48 TP: Dependent on price how price approaches) P.A.C: 1321.55 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).