MQP PRESENTS CPI AND PPI BACK TO BACK SPIKES
HEADER - Things are moving quickly. No time to explain why.
SUMMARY - So CPI is tomorrow, Wednesday, 8:30 AM, ET. PPI is Thursday at the same time. Regressions say 2050 by 7/17, 2100 by 7/27.
DETAILS - See prior post for how we got here.
SUMMARY - So CPI is tomorrow, Wednesday, 8:30 AM, ET. PPI is Thursday at the same time. Regressions say 2050 by 7/17, 2100 by 7/27.
DETAILS - See prior post for how we got here.
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NOTES 1 - WE'RE GOING TO HIT 2140 BY 7/27Not
a) for chart above:b) I adamant that we hit 2080 this run up before 7/27
c) I am confident that we hit 2100 before 7/27
d) I am very optimistic that we hit before 7/27
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e) continuing..f) that means that the first 4 boxes is A VERY VERY STRONG BUY RIGHT NOW
g) we need to see 7/27 prices to know more about August to early September
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h) TYPO FOR d) above: ... very optimistic that we hit 2140 before 7/27Not
NOTES 2 - TO SUM IT UPa) right now 1932, 7/11, 7:30 PM ET
b) highs for 7/12 to 7/13 1975-1985
c) highs for 7/13 to 7/14 2005 if low, 2045 if high, so 2025+/-20
d) that much is reliable right now
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NOTES 3 - 4-HOUR TRACKING WHEN AVAILABLE, WED 7/12, 8:57 AM ET1) a min ago I saw 1943.xx w/ 1950 high
2) no change of plans
3) if and when I have time, I will try to update every 4 hours
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4) FWIW, 11-min bars says 1950 will break AFTER U.S. MARKETS CLOSENot
5) so next update will be tonight unless price action surprises in either directionNot
6) current trends say 1970 more likely after midnight7) so 1980 around 3 AM Thursday is about right
8) that's it for this morning
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NOTES 4 - 4HR TRACKING WHEN AVAILABLE, WED 7/12 9:33 AM ETa) just hit 1953.xx a min ago
b) while prices may act just about however it wants to, I only giving regression mapping targets
c) further more, 11-min bars obviously not as reliable as daily bars
d) with that in mind, the 11-min bar waves look ugly AF and "should" continue to look ugly until 6PM ET tonight
e) so that's why I noted that trends say 1970 more likely after midnight
f) odds say that even with strong move up, there SHOULD be much zig zag until 6PM tonight
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NOTES 5 - 4HR TRACKING WHEN AVAILABLE, WED 7/12, 10:06 AM ETa) now 1953.xx from 1957.xx high over an hour ago
b) 2-min bars (FWIW) say ceiling almost in until for U.S. daytime market
c) so until 6-9 PM tonight (when it should start pushing 1960s), price should swing
d)1948-1957, add a bit more for the high (bc it just tagged 1957 as I type)
e) 1948-1962 seems good until then
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f) continuing...g) this implies that daily swing low 1945 looking like 1PM-4PM
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NOTES 6 - RUMORS OF A PIVOT IS NO LONGER USEFUL
a) I know some people who read me keep referring to that chart
b) IT IS NO LONGER USEFUL
c) this draft you are reading WAY MORE USEFUL THROUGH OCTOBER 2023
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NOTES 7 - HERE IS UPDATED PICTURE THROUGH ALL OF MARCH 2024Not
NOTES 8 - I am confused AF with fundamentals. I still don't have legit answer for the why part of this. CPI weak AF today so t's see what PPI will do tomorrow.Not
NOTES 9 - 4 HOUR TRACKING WHEN AVAILABLE 12:57 PM ET 19591) top in the next 75 min
2) move swing low to 5PM ET
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3) continuing at 2:05 PM ET...4) daytime top should be in now
5) but swing low should move back to before 4PM ET
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6) continuing at 6:11 PM ET...7) window for 1947 tag open until 1 AM THURS
8) but path up w/o retag of 1947 is possible
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9) continuing at 10:12 PM ET (still Wednesday night)...10) it's 1959.xx right now
11) regressions say 1965 very soon, so before midnight very likely
12) unclear what the reaction there will be
13) I also have some questions about the setup for this move that I thought I already answered but haven't
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14) the major issue is "will there be one more check-down to 1900??15) BEFORE spiking up again hard and furiously??
16) I don't think so, but I have not done due diligence to confirm this
17) the evidence I do have does not say that this check-down should happen
18) so as it stands right now, 10:22 PM ET, no changes to expectations for 7/13 and 7/14
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19) continuing at 10:34 PM ET ...20) 3-min bars say ceiling before midnight is 1968
21) why do I switch various bar sizes?
22) to see if they agree or not
23) that's it until PPI tomorrow
24) I am not staying up overnight, so good night
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NOTES 10 - 4 HOUR TRACKING WHEN AVAILABLE, THURSDAY, 8:17 AM ET:1) 1959 before PPI release
2) I have answered all my questions that I had last night
3) first, we have not topped
4) we will top today or tomorrow around 1970
5) then comes the THE CHECKDOWN TO 1895
6) so for ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES,
7) THIS FORECAST IS DEAD
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8) so what's the market waiting for?9) 2 seeks from now will be FOMC on WED JULY 26TH
10) that is the decisive moment
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11) this also opens up another can of worms 12) I stated last post that the bear is DEAD BUT NOT BURIED
13) that is still the base case
14) but I said not buried bc it wasn't yet....
15) that's all for this draft
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NOTES 11 - SO WE WAIT FOR THIS MOMENT...1) here is early binary draft for late july
2) the 2 ellipses are the give away
3) to the major inflection coming
4) see you in about 2 weeks
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5) FWIW, HERE IS WHAT TOMORROW LOOKS LIKEa) for chart above
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b) that's 22-min barc) the VERY FIRST SIGN OF A BEAR OUTCOME COMING...
d) would be 1920 tomorrow
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e) it would be drift to 8:00 AM ETf) then plunge straight down NFP-STYLE
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END OF POST - HERE IS NEXT 2 WEEKS:
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.