FX_IDC:XAUUSD için Binary_Forecasting_Service tarafından INCOMPLETE PREPWORK FOR 66 HOURS

INCOMPLETE PREPWORK FOR 66 HOURS

HEADER - This is a follow up of previous work. As a precaution, first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, second rule of trading is don't forget first rule. As usual, this is meant to used with - whenever possible - continuously updating notes. As always, when price moves against stated plan and updates have not been provided, assume plan is wrong, scrap it and trade defensively.

SUMMARY - So this is titled "incomplete" bc it's not my standard work bc I am trying to give you something that is "better than nothing".

DETAILS - See previous posts for background. 66 hours means the rest of this week.

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10/17 11:12 PM ET - First read previous post - it's very short - for how we got here.
a) so with caveat that I AM DOING THIS BC SOMETHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING...
b) but since it has not been thoroughly vetted, use more caution than you normally would
c) in chart above, there is no third extrapolation
d) in fact, there is no real "second" extrapolation
e) that is to say blue route's "extension of volatile momentum" DOMINATES the extrapolation pictures

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f) that is also saying in the next 66 hours, I expect a move of 100 pts up from where we are NOW, which is 1935.32 as I type, so let's just call it 2035

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g) I am a huge jam bc I have to help ou rapidy aging parents at a thing
h) it's a bit like baby sitting, only except old people
i) so I am not going to chime in unless I have time
j) remember, I can't see if I am not looking, so I can't warn against something I can't see
k) especially at this stage
l) but AS LONG AS PRICES STAY WITHIN THE BOXES OR VERY CLOSE TO THEM...
m) blue route is DOMINANT, DOMINANT FAVORITE VS all other extrapolations combined

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n) and WHY?
o) so just try to recall all that I've discussed since NFP, especially in Friday's notes from:

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p) there's not that many ROUTE OPTIONS FOR THIS SITUATION
q) so now that we have hit a new high by breaking 1930 3 TIMES...
r) 1960 is a foregone conclusion
s) while 2030 IS NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION
t) regressions say AT THIS POINT, BEARS HAVE TO PROVE THEY CAN STOP IT...
u) if you ask me.. I don't they can
w) AND I HAVE YET TO LOOK AT THE HEADLINES
x) have a good one, I'm out

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11:56 PM ET 10/17
a) typo above in u) ... if you ask me... I don't "think" they can
b) so my analysis and instincts are REALLY BULLISH RIGHT NOW
c) I've already said how much little time I have this week for this
d) so let's do this:
e) I will chime in every couple of hours (if I'm not sleeping) and say "on target" or "suspicious"
f) as long as we are "on target" your should buy sell offs and expect 2035
g) that's about all I can do
h) if I post "suspicous AF", that means there's a reversal somewhere but I can't see what it should look like (or have time to post what it looks like)
i) so be cautious AF... that's the plan

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10/18 12:34 AM ET - "on target"

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10/18 6:38 AM ET - "on target" (for 2035, but that DOES NOT mean a straight line there)

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10/118 6:42 AM ET - this goes w/o saying bc we're 1944.xx as I type, but odds of hitting 1960-1980 today are very high and high respectively

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10/18 7:32 AM ET - "on target" (if bulls are legit back, and it seems like they are, ceiling for this run is 2050-2060 and extends into this coming Sunday/Monday)

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10/18 7:37 AM ET - "on target" but 1960 in AM ET, 1980 IN PM ET, tonight, not afternoon

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>> here's resistance that price wants

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>> within that the channels you want to look at

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10/18 7:48 AM ET - if bears intend to "nip it at the bud", they have put in the work here, and absolutely crucial
a) bc 1960 is REALLY HARD STOP today
b) but the REACTION AT 1960 area is a BIG DEAL
c) bulls want NO REACTION... as in just go flat betwen 1960-1970 for hours
d) bears want rugpull AND HOLD, bc if it's rugpull-sticksave IT DOESN'T MATTER

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Typo at a) 1960 .. HARD TO STOP.. NOT HARD STOP

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10/1 9:27 AM ET "on track"

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... or "on target", same difference..

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10/18 9:39 AM ET, 1959.xx LIKE I SAID EARLIER, 1960 IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION --
IF THESE "PREPWORK" POSTS MAKE YOU REAL MONEY:
a) if you've read my work since 9/12 when I started doing it this "around the clock" continuous updating style
b) I now call them "PREPWORK FOR" # OF HOURS...
c) then I don't need to convince you, this work is legit AND REALLY EXTREMELY USEFUL IN HELPING YOU WIN CONSISTENTLY
d) otherwise, for new readers
e) if this work helps you out a lot
f) please spread my work to someone you know
g) word of mouth is about the only thing that matters
h) I have 3 maybe 5 max months left to make something happen with this, career-wise
f) and if I can't get real interest in it, it's a wrap for this project for good
h) this is really the last "last time"
i) if you don't know anyone that's into it, please hit like or "boost" button
j) and that's a wrap for this morning

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9:42 AM ET... NOW COMES THE REACTION
a) if bears have ANY FIGHT LEFT
b) they put it in this area around 1960
c) it doesn't have to be today, or tomorrow
d) it can 2-3 weeks
e) BUT THEY HAVE TO STOP IT GOING HIGHER HERE
f) bc next move in the PM is 1980 (and first reaction should be strong rugpull but it doesn't matter bc check down is still 1960 2 pts higher than 1958.xx as I type)

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g) if price pushes for 1967-168 NOW.... it is 50% over for bears, maybe 60%
h) in the sense that WHATEVER ODDS THEY MAY HAVE to stop 2030...
i) those odds are now only 40%-50%
j) so if it was 1 in 3, now it's less than 1 in 6

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k) THAT IS IF bulls hit 1967-68
l) and I saw 1962.xx a minute ago

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m) and a minute later 1957.xx, nobody said it was going to be easy

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10/18 1958.XX obviously "on target"...
a) that means for 2030
b) again THAT DOES NOT MEAN STRAIGHT LINE
c) that means buy dips and expect to win
d) use straight lines and 5-sec bars for risk management
e) it costs you premium but if you are serious about trading, it's really IMPOSSIBLE to
f) ... make it worth your time unless you you have at least 15-sec bars size-wise

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g) HERE IS A QUICK EXAMPLE, THIS IS JUST HOW I DO IT.... YOU DON'T HAVE TO DO IT THIS WAY...

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a) so my PREPWORK & NOTES are designed to help choose which way is playing that day or that session
b) but the actual trading goes like this:
c) let's say my entry is 1848, I make a line at the bottom
d) EVERY TIME THE SLOPE OR THE CURVE OF PRICE INCREASE ... I MAKE NEW LINE
e) now comes the hard part.. bc this is simply about habit and once you do this you can win
f) WHEN IT BREAKS THE NEWEST LINE... GET OUT
g) EVERY
h) SINGLE
i) TIME
j) PERIOD
k) FULL STOP

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l) in a way, it's like scalping or SUPER SCALPING

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m) so now new line (bcI think 1954-ish holds strong here)

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n) this is why I do sometimes and sometimes not like IDC/ICE ticker when trading
o) for day trading you us FXOPEN or FXCM XAUUSD ticker

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p) why? bc IDC/ICE ticker shows you a wide bid/ask as opposed to a more defined open/close bar:

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q) if gets near 1954 I would buy again and again for a third time BUT NOT A 4TH HERE...

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r) but the gist is that 1960 is important for bears AND ESPECIALLY TODAY bc 1980 is available right now AND ONLY RIGHT NOW
s) if bears hold 1962 today... it might take a while before another setup comes for 1980
t) it could be 3 hours, 3 days, or 3 weeks who knows?
u) we do know for a fact that 1980 IS VERY AVAILABLE THIS PM if early and WED EARLY AM if late

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v) and at 10:19 AM ET still on "target" and I'm out until late tonight

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w) a quickie on THINKING BOTH DIRECTIONS (bc you HAVE TO)
y) again I EXPOUNDED OVER AND OVER AND OVER WHY I DON'T BELIEVE IN BULL THESIS here:

z) and right up until yesterday it was still BASE CASE here:

1) but I warned you in the last post (chart right above here)
2) blue route WAS FIRST BC THAT WAS WHAT MOMENTUM AND PRICE ACTION SAID
3) in the end ONLY PRICE ACTION MATTERS bc that is what determines EVERYTHING
4) so keep an "absolutely OPEN mind" you don't have to be right on thesis...
5) YOU HAVE TO BE RIGHT ON WINNING YOUR TRADE, BC THAT'S MONEY

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10:51 AM I bought MASSIVELY AT 1944.XX

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A) and existed at 1948
B) now rinse and repeat
C) do bears have a route here.. but they an formulate one
D) but until they do LONG FOR THE NEXT 16 HOURS OR 1980

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E) sorry for all typos, I do this sometimes while driving... so I need to not do that..

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F) bears don't have a route but they can formulate one ... it takes time to build a route
G) for this setup, they are massive dogs now so it's long TO A SECOND 1960 TOP BEFORE WE TALK LOWER
H)

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H) just rinse and repeat

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I) hold on a sec here

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> if bears push lower for that line
> STRONG BUY HERE 1937 for A V RESPONSE
> meaning 30 sec bars say bears are in a v shaped trap setup
> if they move to 1937-ish it's a STRONG

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12:37 PM ET... 1949.XX couldn't finish the thought so:

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1) it didn't hit 1937, bid hit 1938.xx
2) we got a V response but WEAK V, so proceed IS LATE FOR 2 AND 4 MINS
3) so on immediate time frame of next 60 to 180 min we have WEAKNESS

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4. Typo price not proceed, price is late

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5) so bears have formulates a route, bc it's following bear path
6) but it SHOULDNT BE THAT EASY FOR BEARS

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7) THIS IS BASE CASE NOW

8) BC OF THE IMPORTANCE OR THIS ARE FOR BOTH BULLS AND BEARS...
9) this is CONDITIONAL FAVORITE FOR NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS

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10) any weakness off this path should be viewed as SUSPICIOUS AF

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11) in this chart IDC ticker XAUUSD does not skip an hour 17:00 to 18:00 (but it will, it just doesnt show it)
12) so 18:00 is actually 19:00 or 7 PM I have at 1974 average for that time

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13) if it spends too much time in this spot here:

14) THAT'S SUSPICIOUS AF

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15) bc it means POSSIBLE (but NOT LIKELY) breakdown like this:

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16) but out base case IS ALSO BACKED BY MOMENTUM... so it SHOULD STILL FIND ANOTHER WAY UP

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17) we just made it to 1952-53 as I type this from my phone
18) so our base case is STRONG AF

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19) ALSO WATCH FOR THIS ROUTE (BC ITS A POPULAR ONE)

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20) for that deep blue route it will move to 1937-42 area 2 more times
21) it is a buy for SECOND AND THIRD TIME BUT NOT 4TH

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22) 1954.xx obviously still "on target", it looks like it's going with base case NOW
23) but when viewed from 2 min bars and smaller its HARD AF TO SAY...

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24) a bit earlier where I had that typo that said "proceed IS LATE FOR 2 MIN AND 4 MIN...", I left out BAR
25) meaning for 2 and 4 MIN BARS, price is LATE
26) put up 4H bar and doesn't even matter...
27) gotta run again

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28) who said it was a V SETUP? HUH? here:

29) not PERFECT V but V ENOUGH, WE ARE SURE ABOUT THAT

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30) if I helped you make $ today, help me help you MORE
31) by word of mouth introducing my work to other traders
32) I'm good enough now to be good in other markets to..
33) but if gold goes to 1980 tonight and I THINK IT WILL ...
34) gold is the market you want to be in for at least 27 months

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3) like I said, watch for this route:

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35) the only way to call it all the time is watching 15 sec bars all the time
36) it is unreal what it allows you to call
37) but this is a hobby not yet a job

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38) so at 3:34 PM ET, now this:

39) so now just one "step" lower not two, but it needs a bit lower like 1942 give or take

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40) but no reason to be suspicious YET

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41) THERE IS A REASON TO BE SUSPICIOUS IF:

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a) for chart above: here is the bear route that is "formulating" or taking shape or shaping up
b) the bull route DOES NOT MIND HITTING 1938 AGAIN BUT NEEDS TO MOVE UP AHEAD OF THE CIRCLE
c) so at 7:00 PM price MUST BE ABOVE 1953 and...
d) must move CONSISTENTLY UP SO THAT PRICE IS 1970 ... AND
e) moving towards 1980 BEFORE MIDNIGHT
f) so any ANY weakness under 1954 AFTER 7PM SHOULD BE CONSIDERED SUSPCIOUS AF

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g) again SUSPICIOUS AF... and should be considered a sign for 1910 TOMORROW
h) like this:

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i) and that means 1910 by 8AM TOMORROW IF ON TIME 12PM IF LATE

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4:46 PM ET... HERE, A BIT MORE CLARITY:
1) first relay chart at top

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2) here is SAME BOXES W/ TWO major extrapolations right now

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3) in chart above:
a) so we're done w/ first box so I deleted it
b) right now we are UNDER SECOND BOX
c) the bull route has us missing most of the third box BUT CLIPPING THE CORNER
d) when it moves for 1980-2000
e) the bear route has us moving to 1915-ish and double topping mid night tomorrow
f) where that red path marker is BULL / BEAR battle line
g) earlier, I was just being too careful when I said "after 7:00 PM can't be under 1953-54
h) it is: can't be under 1950 after 11 PM
i) that's the "SUSPICIOUS AF" moment

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j) 4:58 PM ET, I still se bear route as DOMINANT... I'm just being careful

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k) so basically move for the line, all the way up ...

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l) then once it gets to 1995+, IT DROPS 50 TOMORROW
m) I have it at 1995 around 4 AM ET TOMORROW
n) BUT if gets to 1980 before midnight, THEN I DON'T KNOW, I have see what the waves look like

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o) in theory if the bear hilight plays, the next steps are:

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p) how can that be possible if talking closing the week 2030
q) I said last week closing under 1938 is bearish
r) NOT BREAKING ABOVE 1962 TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY LIKE 1-2 AM...
s) THAT IS STILL THE SAME THING
w) while it is true that bears HAVE TO PROVE THEY CAN STOP 1980 TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
x) bulls also HAVE TO PROVE THEY CLOSE THIS WEEK 2035
y) sure are there middle grounds ... but we don't deal with them until they exist

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z) I mean it's hard to forecast things like this:

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5:55 PM ET... still "on target" to close this week 2035
a) but bears have a LEGIT WINDOW TO GO FOR 1915 w/in 12 hours
b) it's not ridiculous bc IT'S OPEN FOR CONTENTION
c) but odds for next 9 hours as of RIGHT NOW (AND THIS CHANGES HOUR TO HOUR)...
d) is bulls 8-2 or 7-3

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e) so why worry about it?
f) bc odds are REAL but IN CONSTANT FLUX
g) so if we move south 10 pts and hang at 1936 for only 2 hours.. which would only take 3 hours to do considering normal volatility
h) then bulls's odds go to 4:6 or 3:7

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6:02 PM ET 1947.XX momentum says next move is 1941... soon

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a) when?
b) by 7:30 PM ET
c) but as early as 6:50 or 7:00

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d) but it's also CONDITIONAL...
e) if bulls move to 1950 at 7:00
f) and HOLD IT OR GO TO 1952 by 7:30
g) then that SHUT THE DOOR ON BEARS' WINDOW

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h) 6:08 PM ET 1949.62... already turning very bullish
i) why VERY?
j) BC it's a VERY BEARISH WINDOW that can lead to 1915 tomorrow

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k) and THERE ARE NO BEARS SHOWING UP...

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l) it's hard in this situation to get another setup so bearish... 1950.40 already

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m) I finally understand how to explain it now, like this:

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a) for chart above's really cool explanation...
b) SO... we know all the intermediate trends are bullish now (bc we're 1950 from 1810)
c) so the blue route is bulls's route, the orange route is bears' route
d) but the odds are 8-2 or 7-3 at the worst ... (favoring bulls)
e) THERE ARE 3 BLACK ROUTES (I can make 10 or 20, but they would all fit in that zone)
f) so bears missed the first one ...
g) there is only so much time left (if price stays flat) before bearish possibilities for next 3 HOURS RUN OUT
h) then it's SUPER BULL ZONE AGAIN, where bulls would be 8-2 or 9-1 OR BETTER

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i) why do BEARS'S WINDOW run out in 3 hours?

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j) the black curve represents the regression created by the selling since 1962
k) and it turns at the 21:00 marker
l) another of saying that is:

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1) so in chart above all the diagonals below are bull trend
2) so the sellers SINCE 1962 have reached equilibrium at 1950
3) there HAVE TO BE... AGAIN, HAVE TO BE
4) NEW SELLERS (in the frame of this chart) that switch from the bull side to sell side
5) in order to keep this trend going... by definition right?
6) if there are not, PRICE HAS TO GO UP BC IT'S NOT DOING THIS:

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7) if it went dead at 1950 and stayed there for 24 hours that means
8) either the market is closed
9) or no one IS BUYING OR SELLING

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10/18 7:38 AM "on target"

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a) it's not over yet, bc bears' window hasn't closed
b) however... things should go like this if ALL TRENDS HOLD

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c) that's the 1-min bar extrapolation of bull route and yes, it's been vetted
d) BUT IT'S MIN BAR, IT CAN CHANGE IN 20 MIN
e) will post this chart again if it holds
f) it's almost stupid to try

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g) 7:49 PM HOLD ON... I LABELD THE FIRST TARGET WRONG: IT'S 8:25 NOT 8:00 HERE

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h) you can check the last chart it was 8:25 too, I just typed in 8:00 by accident

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i) 8:32 PM ET, still only 1952.63 but tagged 1953.xx before 8:25
j) i just changed the 1:00 to 1:15, but bulls have been disappointing

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8:39 PM ET ... ICE/IDC XAU TICKER already hit 1949.32 a min ago... way early
a) so we missed first bull target
b) and what's worse is EARLY FOR BEARISH TARGET...
c) that's FIRST SIGN OF SUSPICIOUS PRICE ACTION
d) even dropped a bit lower as I typed this

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8:42 PM SO WE HAVE THIS NOW, EVEN A BIT LOWER:

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... I'm trying to find a route up but I don't see it yet

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8:51 we're running out of options
a) replay chart at top
b) it's WAY UNDER the the 3rd box...
c) so there's only so many routes
d) and keeps resorting to parabolic curves which odds are never great
e) i mean these:

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f) why never great? bc they tend to go w/ mirror image inverse ...

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g) but from 8 min bar, everything looks fine?

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h) so re-examination says it will just "catch up to hilight "parabolically"

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9:04 PM SO NOW THIS:

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1) for chart above, that is the curve right now
2) why do I hate them?
3) bc they always have an inverse...
4) I've done this before and been accused of misleading people when I dont update
5) bc I went the other way and didn't say anything
6) well I'm saying it now...
7) odds of us making bull are still 7-3 but dropping
8) but be aware that failing means down and hard

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9) the bull curve looks even uglier now at 9:18 PM ET... sigh but still better than 6:4
10) not 7:3 any more

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9:44 PM ET ...dead heat on 4 and 8 min bars

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1) 10 sets reading 5:5
2) but 15 min bars still reading 5:4:1

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9:48 PM ET I MASSIVELY MASSIVELY LONG WITH A DEAD STOP AT 1945.5

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9:57 PM ET I HAVE A 300 MIN MAX BULL SIGNAL WORTH 33 PTS THAT JUST WENT OFF. THATS 1948 TO 1081

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1981 NOT 1081.

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>> That's 300 minutes for 33 pts, MAX BULL CURVE. So basically 3 AM ET.

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>> It's 10:01, 1948.32 FXOPEN OR FXCM XAUUSD TICKER.
>> My entry was 1847.9 on 8:47 PM ET.

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9:08 PM ET THIS IS TAKING LONG AND GETTING SUSPICIOUS. RAISE STOP TO 1946.5

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>> AGAIN FXOPEN OR FXCM TICKER.

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Typo at 9:08, I MEANT 10:08 PM.
10:13 PM ET RAISE STOP AGAIN 1947.25.

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10:20 RAISE AGAIN 1948.25. HIGHER THAN ENTRY. HERE ARE STOP LINE LINES NOW.

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10:24 PM ET 1949.16 Here is my actual stop vs the "x".

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a) in chart above ignore stuff on left
b) I forgot to choose screen

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c) RAISE STOP AGAIN

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d) so my stop is 1948.5 and it's 1948.66 as I type

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e) meaning any second now I'm out

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f) and 10:31 PM ET, I'm out at 1948.44

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g) if it moves up soon (like minutes I will try again)

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h) not yet:

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i) 9:38 PM ET ENTRY SHORT 1948.28, AGAIN SHORT NOT LONG
j) STOP 1948.5

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k) our 3 lines you need to know for this SHORT if you are shorting:

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l) I got hit already at 1948.3 (I dropped it)

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>> NOW LONG AGAIN 1948.67

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>> I AM ONLY POSTING WHAT I AM DOING
>> THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION.

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>> I MEAN FOR THIS NEW LONG.

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>> BC I DONT HAVE EVIDENCE
>> ITS JUST MY INSTINCT SAYING GO LONG HERE SO I DID

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>> 10:47 PM ET 1949.16, MY STOP IS 1948.75
>> WHY SO TIGHT? BC OF THE SITUATION. THERE'S HUGE 1 WAY VALUE.
>> I WANT TO CATCH IT.
>> BUT I DON'T WANT TO STRADDLE OPTIONS.
>> AND I DON'T WANT TO PAY A HUGE PRICE FOR BEING WRONG.

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>> GOT HIT AGAIN. 1948.73.

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10:58 PM ET, ONE MORE LONG 1949.25

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10:59, MY STOP IS 1948.75

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11:01 PM ET 1950.02 (FX OPEN TICKER) I THINK WE NAILED IT THIS TIME...

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11:03 PM ET 1950.60 HERE'S THE 4 LINES I HAVE:

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11:05 PM ET I TAKE AWAY 2 OF THEM ADD THESE 2:

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11:10 PM SPOKE TO SOON? OK SO...

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11:16 PM STOPPED OUT AGAIN 1949.25. MY 300 MIN SIGNAL FLIPPED 4 TIMES NOW.
a) so there's huge value here ONE WAY
b) but you have to be diligent here with your entries
c) and discipline your stops
d) my max vol readings are 30 PTS BOTH WAYS...
e) in theory, if you stay up and wait, you should catch it

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11:29 PM ET. WED NIGHT WRAP UP. 1947.xx.
a) now it's reading 5:5 even on 22-min bars
b) so THERE IS GOING TO BE A 30-35 pt move from 1948
c) it should be done by noon tomorrow, 1 PM if late
d) I thought it would break by now, but it hasn't
e) so deadline for first break is 3 AM ET
f) there should be 1 retest, so that would be 5 AM ET...

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11:49 PM I'M DONE TONIGHT.
a) IF you are staying up
b) either 1981 or 1915 is coming tomorrow, I think maybe 14 hours from now at the most
c) which way? no IDEA... ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA, I looked and looked and looked
d) the problem is the time for the move was 12 hours 2 hours ago, so it should be 10 now... but it's 14 hours now...
e) that's frustrating AF I know..
f) but be diligent here with your entries and stops, this is a a pretty good signal
g) if you don't want to keep "scalping" for the good entry, there is the reversal danger when it pretends one way and do the other
h) so the late entry is really the move here, if you have to do it late, BE TIGHT AF...
i) be tight either way anyway

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h) TYPO ABOVE .. .the late entry is really NOT THE MOVE HERE... if you have do it late, just BE TIGHT AF

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it's still this line that determines all of it:

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12:02 AM ET 10/19... If it follows bear path, then I have then watch out for the first bounce at 1910-1915 area.

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10/19 1:32 AM ET END OF POST - HERE IS NEXT ONE

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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