XAUUSD(Gold)-Trend Analysis Next Monday

31 Ağu

Technical analysis of gold: During the US trading session last Friday, despite the positive PCE data, gold failed to show a significant upward trend. Several recent positive news have failed to help gold prices break through historical highs, reflecting strong resistance in the historical high area. Gold fell below the 2500 mark as expected during the US trading on Friday, the short-selling force gradually increased, and the top structure became more obvious.

From the daily chart, gold fell after several highs, fell to near the low point of this week on Friday night, and finally closed with a negative line. However, the entity of the negative line has not yet completely broken, and the current daily line shows a trend of yin and yang conversion. This shows that Monday's trend is uncertain: gold may rebound and close with a positive line, or it may continue Friday's downward trend. If it rebounds and closes with a positive line, it is expected that the price will have a chance to rise to around 2521; but if the decline on Friday continues, the gold price may encounter pressure near 2510 and fall again. The key support level below is near 2494. Once this position is effectively broken, it may trigger a further decline of at least $10.

From the 4-hour chart, gold began to pull back from the strong pressure near 2530, and the trend fluctuated at the close of Friday. The Bollinger Band technical indicator still maintains a box-shaped oscillation pattern, the MACD indicator crosses downward, and the moving average system begins to turn down and moves down to form a resistance level near 2515. At the beginning of next week, we need to pay attention to the support near 2495. If this position is broken, the market may be further under pressure to pave the way for the possible interest rate hike in September. At present, gold has formed a multiple top structure. If the gold price rebounds to around 2512 next week, short opportunities will appear again.

On the whole, based on the current technical pattern and market sentiment, the short-term operation suggestion for next Monday is to short after the rebound, supplemented by long on the pullback. In the short term, the upper side focuses on the 2512-2515 resistance range, and the lower side focuses on the 2485-2493 support range. XAUUSD

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Gold Trading Strategies Reference

🎯Strategy 1: Go Sell when gold rebounds to around 2510-2512, stop loss 6 points, target around 2500-2493, break the position and look at the 2485 line✅

🎯Strategy 2: Go Buy when gold pulls back to around 2483-2485 , stop loss 6 points, target around 2495-2500, and look at the 2510 line if the position is broken✅

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✴️Strategy orders are divided into two positions at 1:2 or 1:3. The two positions shall not exceed 15% of the total position. A spare position shall be reserved. All positions shall not exceed 20% of the total position;

✴️Strategy orders change SL to the entry price when the profit is more than 3 US dollars. Unless otherwise notified, the original price shall not be re-entered;

✴️Strategy orders implement current price closing, unless there is a clear statement of pending orders or positions, the strategy is only valid for the day; overnight orders are prohibited;

⚠️The trend of the gold market is changing rapidly, and trading strategies may also be adjusted in real time. Investors are advised to place orders cautiously and manage account funds and positions reasonably.

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During the European session on Monday (September 2), spot gold continued last week's downward trend. Today's opening gold price fell further from last Friday's closing price of US$2,503.06 per ounce, and has fallen below the key psychological mark of US$2,500. Gold prices continue to be under pressure and are currently recovering slightly to $2,505 per ounce. This trend was mainly affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, especially after the US PCE inflation data on Friday was in line with expectations, the market demand for the US dollar increased, causing gold to come under pressure.

Monday coincides with the Labor Day holiday in the United States, and market liquidity is relatively light, which further intensifies the downward pressure on gold. Traders will be adjusting their positions in this relatively quiet market environment in preparation for important U.S. economic data due to be released later this week. These data include ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment changes and non-farm employment data, which are expected to have a significant impact on the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

With gold prices falling below 2,500, sellers in the gold market continue to take control. In the current market environment, gold prices may further test the support level of 2475. If this position is lost, gold prices will face greater downward pressure. If gold prices can remain above 2475 in the next few trading days, it means that there is still some buying support in the market, and gold prices may rebound after a short-term adjustment.

Overall, the performance of the gold market at the beginning of this week was hit by the double blow of the strengthening of the US dollar and insufficient market liquidity. Although gold prices may continue to be under downward pressure in the short term, there is also the possibility of a rebound in gold prices due to the combined effect of technical and fundamental factors. Investors should pay close attention to the key economic data to be released this week, and reasonably adjust their positions according to market dynamics to cope with potential volatility risks.

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This week, investors' attention will shift to the US non-farm payrolls, the last jobs data before the Fed starts cutting rates in September. According to market pricing, a 100 basis point rate cut is still possible. Sufficiently weak data is conducive to rate cut expectations and risk sentiment, but too weak data and expectations of large rate cuts are not conducive to risk sentiment. There is a fine line between the optimism brought by the expectation of rate cuts and the confusion brought by the expectation of rapid rate cuts, as people think that the Fed may have missed the opportunity to end the rate hike cycle, just as it missed the turning point to start the rate hike cycle.
I think that the August non-farm data may be stronger than expected, further suppressing expectations for large Fed rate cuts and favoring the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year. Sufficiently strong data may even strengthen expectations that the Fed will only cut rates twice this year.

Overall, the probability of a hawkish revision to the Fed's rate cut expectations this week is greater than a dovish revision. Therefore, if the non-farm data is strong enough, the US dollar index, which rebounded last week, has room to continue its gains this week, and gold may open up further downside space.