XAU/USD Weekly Analysis

1 Mar

XAU/USD Weekly Analysis with support and resistance levels tailored between $2,800 and $3,000:

XAU/USD Weekly Analysis: March 3–7, 2025
🔹 Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a critical consolidation phase, trading between $2,800 and $3,000. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, including U.S. jobs data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical events.

🔹 Key Support Levels:
Immediate Support:


$2,835–$2,850: Critical support zone, aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally.
$2,800: Psychological support and a key structural level, reinforced by the 50-day SMA.
Major Support (Downside Breach Scenario):


$2,765–$2,780: Long-term trendline support from the 2024 lows.
$2,735: Key swing low; a break below here could signal a deeper bearish trend.

🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance:


$2,900–$2,920: Key consolidation range high and near-term target for bullish momentum.
$2,950: Previous week’s high and a critical barrier to further gains.
Major Resistance (Upside Breakout Scenario):


$2,975–$3,000: Psychological resistance and the upper bound of the bullish channel.
$3,075: Fibonacci 127.2% extension and a potential breakout target.

🔹 Technical Scenario Breakdown:
Bullish Case (Breakout):


Trigger: Fed dovishness or USD weakness.
Action: Break above $2,950 confirms bullish momentum.
Targets: $2,975 (psychological level), then $3,075 (breakout extension).
Bearish Case (Reversal):


Trigger: Strong USD or risk-on sentiment.
Action: Breakdown below $2,835 signals bearish shift.
Targets: $2,800 (key support), then $2,765–$2,735 (trendline and swing low).
Neutral/Range-Bound:


Range: $2,835–$2,950.
Action: Fade extremes (buy dips near $2,835, sell rallies near $2,950).

🔹 Price Action Drivers During the Week:
U.S. Jobs Data (March 7):


Weak NFP (<150k jobs) → USD sell-off → Gold rallies toward $2,950–$3,000.
Strong NFP (>250k jobs) → USD strength → Gold tests $2,835–$2,800.
Fed Commentary (March 5):


Hawkish tone → Gold pressured below $2,835.
Dovish tone → Rally toward $2,950+.
Geopolitical Surprises:


Escalations → Safe-haven surge → Gold breaches $2,975–$3,000.
De-escalations → Profit-taking → Drop to $2,800.

🔹 Technical Tools to Monitor:
RSI (14-day): Overbought above 70 indicates pullback risk; oversold below 30 signals potential rebound.
MACD: Bullish crossover above the zero line strengthens upward bias.
Volume: Confirm breakouts above $2,950 with rising volume.

📈 Summary:
Support: $2,835–$2,850 (critical), $2,800 (structural), $2,765–$2,735 (trendline).
Resistance: $2,900–$2,920 (immediate), $2,950 (key breakout), $2,975–$3,000 (psychological).
Catalysts: U.S. data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical factors remain key drivers.

6 gün önce

Not

6 gün önce

Not

as we predicted it reached major pivot zone of 2972

5 gün önce

Not

we said this week its a buy, THEN ITS A BUY

4 gün önce

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

just made big profit