Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold: A New Bullish Cycle

23 Şub

let's review Gold Waves!


Wave I (1971-1974):
The initial rise in the early 1970s represents Wave I of the first large cycle. During this time, gold prices surged significantly due to the ending of the Bretton Woods system and the subsequent decoupling of the US dollar from gold. The price increases were driven by growing inflation concerns and geopolitical instability. This is a primary impulsive wave.
The end of Wave I appears around 1974, where gold saw a significant peak.

Wave II (1974-1976):
Wave II is a corrective phase, where prices corrected lower after the initial rally of Wave I. This wave retraced a portion of Wave I and is a typical ABC correction (labeled as the ABC corrective structure on the chart).
After reaching the low point, the market started another impulsive wave up.

Wave III (1976-1980):
Wave III is the strongest and most aggressive part of the cycle. This wave saw gold prices skyrocket during the late 1970s, driven by high inflation, political instability (e.g., the Iranian Revolution), and the second oil crisis.
Gold reached an all-time high in 1980, marking the peak of Wave III. This wave completed the first major bullish cycle in the chart.

Wave IV (1980-1999):
After the peak in 1980, gold entered Wave IV, a long and complex correction that lasted until the late 1990s. This correction lasted nearly two decades and saw prices decline dramatically during the 1980s and 1990s as inflation subsided and global economic conditions stabilized.
Wave IV is characterized by long periods of consolidation, with gold fluctuating around lower levels.

Wave V (1999-2011):
Following the completion of Wave IV, gold entered Wave V, the final impulsive wave of this long-term cycle. This wave began around 1999 and saw gold prices move higher, culminating in a bullish run from 2008 to 2011.

The global financial crisis and the subsequent loose monetary policies (quantitative easing and low-interest rates) from central banks across the world provided the perfect backdrop for gold to rally.

Gold peaked at $1900 in 2011, marking the end of Wave V in this cycle, representing the peak of the primary impulsive move.

ABC Correction (2011-2020):

After the peak in 2011, gold entered a significant ABC correction. This correction can be broken down into three parts:

• Wave A (2011-2015): The initial correction after the peak, where gold prices fell sharply, reaching lows of $1050 in 2015.
  
• Wave B (2016-2018): A partial rally as investors regained some confidence, with prices climbing to around $1360 before the next decline.
  
• Wave C (2018-2020): The final leg of the correction, which saw a further decline and then an explosive surge in early 2020 due to the global economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  

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New Cycle (Post-2020):

After the massive surge in 2020, the chart suggests that gold has entered a new cycle—starting from the COVID-19 pandemic's impact. This marks the beginning of a new impulsive wave (labeled as Wave I of the new cycle).

Wave I (2020-2025): From the lows of March 2020 to the current high, gold prices have surged sharply, indicating the early stages of the new bullish cycle.

Wave II (2025-2027): A potential correction (Wave II) could be expected, retracing a portion of the rise from the pandemic-induced lows. This is typical after any strong Wave I move, as markets consolidate before further rallies. the target area would be $2100! could these reasons cause this correction:

I suggest that once Wave II is completed, gold could see further strong moves in Wave III, which could lead to higher levels of gold prices—potentially above $4000-$5000 or even higher, depending on broader market dynamics and economic conditions.

24 Şub

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maybe firstly this position