XAU/USD: Market Dynamics Analysis and Trading Strategies

I. Market Trends and Sentiment Analysis
Driven by the U.S. military intervention in the Middle East conflict, gold exhibited violent fluctuations of "gap-up opening followed by rapid correction" in early trading:
- Price Performance: After gapping up to $3,395/oz, the intraday maximum decline approached $50, hitting a low of $3,347 and currently trading around $3,355—reflecting intense battles between bulls and bears at key levels.
- Sentiment Drivers: While risk aversion boosted safe-haven demand, short-term corrections were jointly triggered by profit-taking from prior long positions and institutional market-washing maneuvers. Note that the weekly "bull-bear alternating" volatility pattern remains intact, with no unilateral trend established yet.

II. Technical Key Levels and Trend Qualification
1. Support & Resistance Structure
- Strong Support: $3,340–$3,350 range (confluence of May’s low and 60-day moving average), a bottom platform tested three times in the past two weeks with robust buying support.
- Short-term Resistance: $3,375–$3,380 (lower edge of the early gap + 4-hour Bollinger Band midline), with a breakthrough targeting the $3,400 psychological level.
2. Cycle Pattern Analysis
- Weekly Frame: Two consecutive weeks of alternating bull/bear candlesticks, with RSI anchored in the 50–60 neutral zone, indicating ongoing tug-of-war between long/short forces.
- Daily Frame: Today’s correction held above the prior low of $3,340, forming a "long lower-shadow bearish candlestick"—signaling active buying at lows and suggesting the correction may be nearing conclusion.

III. Trading Strategy: Capitalize on Correction Entries
- Entry Zone: Layered long positions at $3,340–$3,350, with $3,340 as the invalidation stop (shift to neutral if breached).
- Target Levels: Initial target at $3,375–$3,380 (short-term profit-taking), with a break above eyeing $3,400 (mid-to-long-term target).
- Trading Logic: Support validity + weekly range-bound bullish bias, with corrections viewed as benign within the broader trend.

IV. Risk Controls & Operational Notes
- No Chasing Shorts: The current correction is a technical retracement within the uptrend; chasing shorts risks falling into a "bear trap".
- Dynamic Monitoring: Closely track the $3,340 support threshold and evolving Middle East developments.

XAUUSD
buy@3340-3350
tp:3365-3375

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