GOLD → Support Retest. Bad fundamentals for $

28 May 2023

Gold is in an upward bullish channel. The price has been confirming the upward resistance line and the upward support line many times. The futures are approaching the support area of the channel. What to expect from the price?

Gold is consolidating between the key Fibonacci levels of 0.382 and 0.5. The price breaks one of the key support levels and tests 0.5 Fibo at 1935.843.
The price starts to form a rebound and most likely from the opening of the session will test the nearest resistance.



Fundamental factors in the new week may play the role of a bullish lever. In that case the price may not reach the support area of the rising channel and starts to strengthen.
After breaking through 1966 and consolidating above that level, the bulls might strengthen the price to 1981 and then to 2000.
But the fundamental factors are unpredictable, so there is a chance of the price bounce from 1966 and continue falling to the level of 0.618 Fibo 1904 (ascending support line).

• May 30, 2023
  Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism - Analysts expect decrease
  
  
• May 31, 2023
  JOLTs Job Openings - A survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers about their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations - Analysts expect to see a strengthening
  
  
• June 1, 2023.
  The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government's non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile - analysts expect a significant deterioration in the numbers.
  
  Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week - analysts expect an improvement
  
  The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply managers in over 400 industrial companies.
  
  
• June 2, 2023
  Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, not including the agricultural sector - Analysts expect it to get worse
  
  Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity - Analysts expect significant deterioration
  
  The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month - Analysts expect the indicator to deteriorate.
  

All in all - the fundamental factors, provided the expected data proves to be true, may influence the dollar rather negatively in the coming week and we could see the index decline. At that time this maneuver will be a positive sign for gold and the price of metal may strengthen.

Regards R. Linda!