Gold Rally is Over? No, It's Not! Check this pattern!
Don't get rush to conclude that gold already too high and it will ended the rally soon!
No, it hasn't! at least that what I see on Monthly Chart. The breakout in March 2024 is the beginning of new ultra bullish gold! The "Cup and Handle" in Monthly chart didn't come in one day or one hour! It built in multi-years and therefore still have long time to go from the latest rally. That means 2070's would be the new psychological support and probably would be the new bottom for the next few record for gold. That also means we probably hard to see the apearance of level 1700 or 1800 area due to this chart pattern.
Is it possible to have such a trend and no correction below 2000's area in the new era?
Let see this historical :
a. The 2008's - 2011 era : October low was at 681.43, and then rally to November 2011 high hit 1920's area. The correction happened since the new high record, corrected to 1046.10 in 2015...5 years from the peak. (note : 2008 is the crisis era, and central bank print the money to what it called QE 1 and 2) -> people called gold would drop again below 1000's, but it never happen because since 2015-2018 gold hold above 1000's, and move arround 1046-1374)
b. The 2015 - 2020 era : Gold moves arround 1046-1374 from December 2015 - August 2018, then gradually raise until 2020 hitting the peak 2075 in August 2020. It was also breaking new record from 1920 to new high 2075. And then corrected gradually to 1676 in March 2021 and 1614 in September 2022. That was calculated to be corrected gradually in 2 consecutive years. -> people at that time came back saying gold was done and would fall back below 1600, but it never happen because gold give another shot to 2075 in 2023.
c. The shortest era 2022-2023 : Gold moves from lower price 1614 in September 2022, up to 2079 in Mei 2023. And again.. that time, people keep saying gold already high and it will done below 1500...but again..it wasn't happen cause the lowest level only touch 1810 in October 2023.
And also from 1810 to 2143 in December 2023, people at that time still said gold was finished and would go down to 1830 because there was a gap that had not been closed during the Hamas attack on Israel. But again..gold steady!January, February and finally March 2024 gold break the new record and looks like it continue in April 2024 at 2431.
Try to look deep inside the charts and get some real though that "gold is hit new high era and probably new high will come and too hard to give it all back below 1700's! If the central banks come in "loosening policy" era in the next 2 years ahead, that probably means gold will shoot another higher price and record, and also new "higher low" . This means correction still can happen, but shoul be hard to meet correction below 1700's levels.
Well, here are my thoughts and Ideas! There may be some pros and cons, but they are all explained by upcoming charts, patterns and fundamentals!
No, it hasn't! at least that what I see on Monthly Chart. The breakout in March 2024 is the beginning of new ultra bullish gold! The "Cup and Handle" in Monthly chart didn't come in one day or one hour! It built in multi-years and therefore still have long time to go from the latest rally. That means 2070's would be the new psychological support and probably would be the new bottom for the next few record for gold. That also means we probably hard to see the apearance of level 1700 or 1800 area due to this chart pattern.
Is it possible to have such a trend and no correction below 2000's area in the new era?
Let see this historical :
a. The 2008's - 2011 era : October low was at 681.43, and then rally to November 2011 high hit 1920's area. The correction happened since the new high record, corrected to 1046.10 in 2015...5 years from the peak. (note : 2008 is the crisis era, and central bank print the money to what it called QE 1 and 2) -> people called gold would drop again below 1000's, but it never happen because since 2015-2018 gold hold above 1000's, and move arround 1046-1374)
b. The 2015 - 2020 era : Gold moves arround 1046-1374 from December 2015 - August 2018, then gradually raise until 2020 hitting the peak 2075 in August 2020. It was also breaking new record from 1920 to new high 2075. And then corrected gradually to 1676 in March 2021 and 1614 in September 2022. That was calculated to be corrected gradually in 2 consecutive years. -> people at that time came back saying gold was done and would fall back below 1600, but it never happen because gold give another shot to 2075 in 2023.
c. The shortest era 2022-2023 : Gold moves from lower price 1614 in September 2022, up to 2079 in Mei 2023. And again.. that time, people keep saying gold already high and it will done below 1500...but again..it wasn't happen cause the lowest level only touch 1810 in October 2023.
And also from 1810 to 2143 in December 2023, people at that time still said gold was finished and would go down to 1830 because there was a gap that had not been closed during the Hamas attack on Israel. But again..gold steady!January, February and finally March 2024 gold break the new record and looks like it continue in April 2024 at 2431.
Try to look deep inside the charts and get some real though that "gold is hit new high era and probably new high will come and too hard to give it all back below 1700's! If the central banks come in "loosening policy" era in the next 2 years ahead, that probably means gold will shoot another higher price and record, and also new "higher low" . This means correction still can happen, but shoul be hard to meet correction below 1700's levels.
Well, here are my thoughts and Ideas! There may be some pros and cons, but they are all explained by upcoming charts, patterns and fundamentals!
Feragatname
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