Analysis of the latest gold market trend on February 7:

7 Şub

Analysis of gold news: Spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range in the European market on Friday (February 7), and is currently trading at $2,869/ounce. Gold prices fell 1% to around $2,834.08/ounce on Thursday as the US dollar rebounded before the release of the key employment report. In the previous five trading days, gold prices hit record highs due to escalating trade tensions between China and the United States. However, gold prices are still supported by bargain hunting. The decline in gold prices narrowed at the end of Thursday's trading, closing at around $2,855.81/ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.4% to 108.10 on Thursday, narrowing its gains after the release of the initial claims data and closing at around 107.70. Before the release of the US employment report, the rebound of the US dollar, some profit-taking and a slight recovery in yields from lows may have put pressure on gold. In addition to the non-farm payrolls report, this trading day also needs to pay attention to the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February, the speeches of Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman and Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler.

On Friday, the market welcomed the first non-farm data of Trump's new term. The current market expects non-farm employment to increase by 170,000 in January, less than the 256,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%. However, after Trump took office in January, he implemented a strong immigration policy and a wildfire with a huge impact occurred, which may affect Friday's data. On February 7 this year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will include the annual benchmark revision of the household survey when it releases the January non-farm report. This benchmark revision will re-anchor the number of non-institutional residents in the survey to the newly released census forecast, which will lead to revisions to the level of labor, household employment and other indicators. It is worth mentioning that the non-farm report data comes from two sources-corporate surveys and household surveys. Institutional surveys are conducted by asking the number of positions on the payroll of the company, and household employment is a survey that asks about the actual employment of the household, which covers a wider range of employment than corporate surveys. Recently, U.S. President Trump has stirred the gold market. Trump has imposed tariffs on many countries around the world. On the other hand, Trump has been meddling in the Gaza region. Global trade frictions and geopolitical frictions have slightly heated up, pushing gold prices higher. However, investors need to be wary of the risk of gold price corrections. Trump's tariff policy is pushing up inflation expectations in the United States. Fed officials continue to send signals to the market, worrying about the return of inflation in the United States and are not in a hurry to cut interest rates. This is very likely to push up the dollar again and suppress gold prices.

Technical analysis of gold: Yesterday, gold was blocked from rising. In the recent trend, it fell back for the first time with obvious resistance. After the retracement of the hourly line negative line adjustment in recent trading days, it still rose. However, yesterday's upward trend slowly rebounded, with a large space for retracement. Pay attention to high-level fluctuations during the day. Regarding the current trend structure, it is more obvious that there is a retracement trend in the upward trend, but it does not mean that the short-term growth trend has changed. The trend structure of the bull market cannot be changed because of a retracement. The retracement indicates that the growth has reached a certain height and has a certain retracement correction trend, and there is a sell-off at a high level. For the future market, it is still optimistic that the trend of the growth will continue to rise.

From the perspective of the trend pattern, the short-term continuous rush to the high position has the first high-level adjustment trend. The 2870 first-line decline port has adjusted and fallen, but the retracement is not very strong. It has risen again at the opening. The price adjustment cycle is short. The trend structure is still more obvious in the increase expectation, so pay attention to whether it continues to rush up during the day. At the same time, the guidance of the US market data news is also the trend expectation that affects price fluctuations. Therefore, the current market volatility in the Asian market is relatively insufficient to affect the trend, and paying attention to the European and American markets is the focus.

In terms of intraday layout, the short-term cycle is still dominated by long positions. After the decline, it is the time to enter the long position. It is safer to follow the long position after the adjustment of the hourly negative line. Secondly, the continuity of the key position of the short-term structural upward movement is still likely to break through the position. It is not easy to participate aggressively in the short term. The reference point for intraday short-term layout is to focus on the real low point of yesterday's decline near 2840, and the upper focus is on the position of the continuation of the increase of 2870. The main direction is still to participate in the low position. On the whole, our professional and senior gold trading team recommends that the short-term operation of gold today is mainly based on callbacks and supplemented by rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is 2878-2880 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 2835-2840 support.

From the 4-hour analysis, today's upper short-term resistance is around 2878-2880, and the lower short-term support is around 2855-2858. Focus on the support at 2835-2840. As the US market will release non-agricultural employment data, there is a high probability that the long and short wide range of fluctuations will continue before the data is released. In the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. I will prompt the specific operation strategy in the Tradingview community, or leave a message in my Tradingview community, we will reply as soon as possible, please pay attention in time.

Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long on gold at 2845-2848, stop loss at 2832, target 2878-2880; continue to hold if it breaks!

8 Şub

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Analysis of gold market trends next week:

Analysis of gold news: On Friday (February 7), after the latest US employment report showed that the labor market slowed down but was still resilient, gold prices hit a new record high after a brief fluctuation. In addition to assessing the prospects of the Fed's future interest rate policy path, the escalating trade tensions caused by Trump's tariff threats prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets. After the release of the employment data, US Treasury yields and the US dollar rose slightly, limiting further gains in gold prices. Since gold itself does not pay interest and is denominated in US dollars, a stronger US dollar usually puts pressure on gold prices. Market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts have cooled, and currently only the possibility of less than two rate cuts is taken into account, which is a decline from the previous more aggressive rate cut expectations. Although the employment data supports the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, which is theoretically unfavorable for gold prices, safe-haven demand continues to be strong and gold remains close to its historical highs. Due to trade war concerns, gold traders in London are accelerating the transfer of gold to the United States in case gold may face tariffs. Bloomberg reported that gold in the Bank of England's vaults is trading below the market price, and the waiting time for gold withdrawal has been as long as several weeks due to tight supply. Overall, although the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged, limiting some of the gains in gold prices, safe-haven demand continues to support gold prices, keeping them near historical highs.

Technical analysis of gold: From the current market, this week's weekly line recorded a positive line with an upper shadow, forming a six-day positive arrangement. The current price is running above the upper track of the Bollinger Band, and the short-term moving average maintains a golden cross and develops upward. It stands to reason that it will be conducive to the continued strength of the bulls, so the weekly chart is still bullish. In terms of the daily line, although the daily line recorded a positive line yesterday, the long upper shadow line cannot be ignored, because this shows that the gold price encountered strong resistance in the 2886 area. However, fortunately, the short-term indicators are still arranged in a bullish pattern, the short-term moving average extends upward, and forms a strong support in the 2848-2850 area. In addition, the overall opening of the Bollinger Band is upward, and the golden cross pattern of the macd indicator provides support for the bulls. Therefore, low-long on the daily chart is still the main idea. In the 4 hours, affected by the rise and fall of gold prices, the 5-day moving average among the short-term moving averages turned downwards, which also led to the formation of short-term resistance at the opening of next week. In addition, the strength of the bulls was obviously insufficient, which can be reflected in the rapid retracement from the high around 2860. In addition, the upward momentum of the short-term indicators is not strong, and the macd indicator once again developed a dead cross downward. Therefore, in general, the 4-hour chart should be treated as a pullback from the high. In general, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends rebound shorting as the main strategy for short-term gold operations next week, and callback longing as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2882-2887 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2835-2830 line of support.

Gold operation strategy:
1. Short gold at 2882-2887 when it rebounds, stop loss at 2892, target around 2870-2860, break to 2850;

2. Go long at 2840-2845 when gold falls back, cover position at 2835 when gold falls back, stop loss at 2830, target 2888-2890; continue to hold if it breaks!