Market Analysis | GU, UJ & GOLD – Key Levels & Fundamentals

21 Eyl

Last week, we spotted ranges across USDJPY, GBPUSD, and XAUUSD, waiting for the big central bank moves to decide direction. Now, the ranges are breaking, except for USDJPY, which is still locked in.

In this video, I walk you through:

✅What happened last week, and why the price moved the way it did

✅The fundamentals and events that shaped sentiment

✅My outlook and key chart levels for the new week (Sep 22–26)

Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – GBPUSD: Breakout fails, dollar strength returns
07:10 – USDJPY: Still trapped in range, waiting for a catalyst
11:50 – XAUUSD: Breaks above range to test record highs
16:50 – Wrap up & key events to watch

This week’s focus will be on the Core PCE data, Powell’s speech, and S&P Global PMIs. These are the catalysts likely to drive sentiment across the dollar, yen, and gold.

Please note that this information is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

22 Eyl

Not

🪙 XAUUSD (Gold)
Gold is still finding support from the Fed’s dovish tone and rising geopolitical risks. But the US Dollar is gaining strength again after Powell’s comments, which could cap gold’s upside.
Best approach: secure profits quickly on any small gains.

The structure identified on the 1H timeframe [see chart below for reference purposes] reflects current sentiment in the market and will be guiding my trading decision today

22 Eyl

Not

💷 GBPUSD
The pound is stuck in a consolidation zone after last week’s wild swings. Strong USD buying, combined with weaker risk sentiment, is limiting the upside, while buyers still lean on the BoE’s hawkish stance. 👀 All eyes now on upcoming BoE & Fed speeches.

The structure identified on the 1H timeframe [see the chart below for reference purposes] reflects the current sentiment in the market and will guide my trading decisions today.

22 Eyl

Not

💴 USDJPY
Yen has dropped to a 2-week low against a stronger USD. Ongoing political uncertainty in Japan and worries about US tariffs could keep the BoJ cautious on raising rates. With risk sentiment leaning positive, USD/JPY is pushing higher. 📈

The structure identified on the 1H timeframe [see the chart below for reference purposes] reflects the current sentiment in the market and will guide my trading decisions today.

24 Eyl

Not

XAUUSD 🪙
Gold is cooling off after that explosive 800-pip rally 🚀 we banked on Monday. For the past 24 hours, the price has been consolidating, holding onto gains despite a retracement from yesterday’s all-time high.

Geopolitical risks 🌍 (Russia–Ukraine, Middle East) and a softening in global risk sentiment 📉 continue to act as tailwinds.

On the 15-minute chart [see chart below], the price is respecting a descending channel 📉, which mirrors the short-term consolidation mood. The big question for today:
👉 Will the break above the channel’s resistance confirm a genuine breakout, or just a fakeout trap?

My eyes are on those levels on the chart to guide execution.

Good Morning

24 Eyl

İşlem aktif

XAUUSD 🪙
Gold is cooling off after that explosive 800-pip rally 🚀 we banked on Monday. For the past 24 hours, the price has been consolidating, holding onto gains despite a retracement from yesterday’s all-time high.

Geopolitical risks 🌍 (Russia–Ukraine, Middle East) and a softening in global risk sentiment 📉 continue to act as tailwinds.

On the 15-minute chart [see chart below], the price is respecting a descending channel 📉, which mirrors the short-term consolidation mood. The big question for today:
👉 Will the break above the channel’s resistance confirm a genuine breakout, or just a fakeout trap?

My eyes are on those levels on the chart to guide execution.

Good Morning

24 Eyl

Not

GBPUSD 💷💵

Over the last 36 hours, GBP/USD has been stuck in consolidation, sliding toward the 1.3490 area. The Pound is under serious pressure after the UK PMI data came in weaker for September.

Traders are also waiting for remarks from BoE’s Megan Greene later today. This explains why the market is indecisive and holding back momentum.

The chart below highlights the levels I am watching, and that’s what I’ll be using to guide my decisions for the day.

Good morning 🌞

24 Eyl

Not

US Crude Oil 🛢🇺🇸

After a 160-pip rally in the last 24 hours, the price has now slipped into consolidation, shaping into a possible reversal setup on the 15-minute chart.

The move comes as fresh worries about oversupply hit the market, following news that Iraq and the Kurdish regional governments have agreed to restart a key oil pipeline.

Oil traders are now waiting for the API weekly crude stock report later today, which could give the next direction.

For me, the 15-minute structure with its marked levels remains my guide for possible entries today.

Good Morning

24 Eyl

Not

USDJPY 💵🇯🇵

The market has been choppy since the start of the week. The Yen opened strong, but the Dollar has shown resilience, finding support around 147.500.

This morning, a private survey showed Japan’s manufacturing sector fell at the fastest pace in six months, adding to Yen weakness. On top of that, US tariff concerns and local political uncertainty give the BoJ more reasons to hold off on raising rates.

On the 15-minute chart, the break of the descending trendline and the week's key level at 148.000 points to the possibility of a USD rally today. Still, I’m watching the 147.500 support closely; a break below could open room for selling setups.

Good Morning

26 Eyl

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

USDJPY Market Update 📊

Since our last update, USDJPY has moved over 180 pips in our favor ✅. At this point, it’s wise to secure some profits, as price action is starting to consolidate.

The Japanese Yen is showing a slight recovery from its three-week low during the Asian session. This bounce is likely linked to news that US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on a wide range of imports, which cooled investor appetite for riskier assets. As a result, we’re seeing some safe-haven flows back into the Yen.

With traders stepping to the sidelines ahead of the key US inflation data, USDJPY has seen a modest pullback.

On the 15-minute chart (see chart), a new structure with important levels has been identified, and this will be my guide for decision-making today.

26 Eyl

Not

GBPUSD Market Update 📊

After enjoying over 160 pips from the last sell position ✅, GBPUSD is now showing signs of recovery as the pair holds ground following two straight days of losses.

The downside looks limited for now because the Pound may find support from UK inflation risks and the uncertain Bank of England stance. Notably, Megan Greene urged caution on rate cuts yesterday, hinting at a possible pause in November since inflation risks are shifting upward.

On the 15-minute chart (see chart below), a new structure has formed. The ascending trendline and the highlighted levels will be my key guides for decision-making today.

26 Eyl

Not

USOIL Market Update 🛢️

The market is currently consolidating gains from the bullish momentum, with price action confined between $64.925 and $65.125 since yesterday evening, showing some uncertainty as we head into the weekend.

Despite this range, US crude oil still shows underlying strength due to supply concerns. Pressure on Russian oil from the Ukraine–Russia conflict and reports of declining refining capacity have brought Russia close to cutting crude production. Some regions are already facing fuel shortages, which increases the chances of a continued uptrend.

That said, we can’t ignore possible profit-taking ahead of the weekend. For now, the 15-minute chart (see chart below) with the new structure will guide my trading decisions today.

26 Eyl

Not

XAUUSD Market Update 🪙✨

Gold has been choppy over the last 48–60 hours, reversing a modest Asian session dip and now trading around the descending trendline on the 15-minute chart (see chart below).

The bigger picture remains bullish 📈 thanks to supportive fundamentals. Investors expect the US Fed to cut rates again in October and December, which limits the strength of the recent USD rally and continues to provide a tailwind for gold.

With this backdrop, I’ll be using the new 15-minute structure to guide my trading decisions today.