Data Week, attention to jobs gets special attention from the Fed

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XAUUSD fell about 1% as the USD and US Treasury bond yields increased sharply after US inflation data matched expectations over the weekend. However, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy in September and geopolitical tensions still pose many risks, gold still has a lot of potential fundamental support.

Gold prices closed slightly lower last week but still maintained the 2,500 USD/ounce mark. This week, investors will receive US ISM data and non-farm payrolls reports, which are expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market.
The latest data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, in line with economists' forecasts.
Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Signs of steady buying from central banks in emerging markets also supported prices.
Also notable is data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing that as of the week of August 27, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts increased 69 lots to 236,818 lots.
Next Tuesday, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August will be a highlight in US economic data in the early days of the week.
The market expects the overall PMI to rise to 47.8 from 46.8 in July. If the index is above 50, that could directly boost the US dollar and put pressure on gold in the short term.

ADP employment changes and ISM services PMI data will also be released on Wednesday and Thursday, but the market reaction to these data is likely to be immediate and short-lived. A positive surprise data will support the USD and negative data pressure the USD ahead of the widely anticipated August jobs report next Friday.

US nonfarm payrolls (NFP), due out next Friday, are expected to increase by 163,000 in August after a disappointing increase of 114,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2 % from 4.3% and wage inflation, measured by changes in average hourly earnings, is expected to increase 0.3% from the previous month.
NFP data next week will be the main focus, because during the Jackson Hole conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members also focused a lot on employment data in the near future. It is expected that next week the market will have significant turbulence when NFP data will be the center of the big storm.

Economic data to watch this week
Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, US JOLTS vacancies
Thursday: ADP employment data; US ISM services PMI, US weekly initial jobless claims
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Although gold had a correction late last week, overall the daily chart of gold prices still shows a solid uptrend.
With the price channel making an upward trend in the short term, as long as gold remains in the price channel and above the EMA21 moving average, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future, with targets still being fixed at 2,531USD in the short term and more to the point of 2,544USD.

Although the Relative Strength Index is pointing down, it has not yet reached the overbought level before turning down, and the slope is negligible, so this is not considered a signal of pressure and support. for this Indicator is noted at 50%.

The fact that gold closed above 2,484 USD and the original price level of 2,500 USD shows a positive technical outlook, and the uptrend in the near future will be noticed again by the following price points.
Support: 2,500 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2551 - 2549⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2555

→Take Profit 1 2544
↨
→Take Profit 2 2539

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2512 - 2514⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2517

→Take Profit 1 2505
↨
→Take Profit 2 2495

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2484 - 2486⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2479

→Take Profit 1 2489
↨
→Take Profit 2 2494

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2470 - 2472⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2467

→Take Profit 1 2475
↨
→Take Profit 2 2494

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The situation becomes even more complicated when considering recent moves by the BoE. Although the BoE has pioneered interest rate cuts, ahead of the Fed, this does not seem to have had the expected effect. Since the interest rate cut on August 1, UK long-term government bond yields have tended to increase, reflecting market skepticism about the effectiveness of current monetary policy.

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Gold prices fell to their lowest level in more than a week in the early trading session of September 3, under pressure from a stronger USD, while investors waited for US employment data to determine the scale of interest rate cuts. potential yields at the Fed's September policy meeting.

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Gold prices held steady on Wednesday as investors braced for a monthly U.S. payrolls report that could influence how swiftly and deeply the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year.

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Since the labor market is no longer overheating and both actual and expected inflation are cooling, we expect the FOMC to lower interest rates by 25 bps in each meeting from September to June 2025, this will be followed by two 25 bps cuts in the second half of 2025. This will eventually put interest rates in the range of 3.00-3.25% (previously 3.75-4.00%) by the end of 2025.

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Gold prices fell to their lowest level in nearly 2 weeks on Wednesday (September 4), extending the decline for the fourth consecutive session, as the market forecast that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates. slightly at this month's policy meeting.

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Gold prices traded back above $2,500 on Thursday after recovering from the previous day's low of $2,471, following the release of lower-than-expected July job openings data from the US, sparking New concerns about the possibility of a "hard landing". Gold prices recovered after the release of weaker-than-expected US employment data.

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On September 12 (Thursday), analysts and markets all agreed that the ECB would reduce interest rates by 25 bps. Adjustments in the labor market and economic activity since the June meeting, especially the deceleration in wage growth, have reinforced confidence that inflation is on track toward the target level.

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World gold prices rebounded past the threshold of 2,500 USD/oz in the trading session on Thursday (September 5), when gloomy data on the US economy increased the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut strong interest rates in the upcoming meeting. During Friday's session, gold prices may fluctuate if the US August employment report has numbers beyond forecasts - according to analysts.

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This week, the JOLTS report on job vacancies released Wednesday showed a decline. Next, yesterday's ADP employment report also disappointed when it was lower than expected. Not to mention, the ISM employment index also showed a slight decrease compared to expectations, further reinforcing the assessment of a cooling labor market.

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World gold prices fell sharply in the trading session on Friday (September 6), slipping from the 2,500 USD/oz mark, after the US Department of Labor released the August employment report. Although these statistics are worse Expectations, the market increased bets on the possibility of the Fed choosing a smaller interest rate cut in the upcoming meeting, leading to devaluation pressure on gold.

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Data recently released by the China Foreign Exchange Administration shows that the country's gold reserves as of the end of August 2024 were 72.8 million ounces, remaining the same as at the end of July and unchanged for the 4th consecutive month. next. Previously, the People's Bank of China (PBoc, the central bank) increased its gold holdings for 18 consecutive months.

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After a week dominated by employment data, the gold market will continue to wait for the inflation report with the most important data being the US August CPI published this Wednesday morning (September 11). .