Gold Market Analysis for 13-Sep-2023

12 Eyl 2023

The gold market has exhibited a significant Break of Structure (BoS) downwards at 1915.41 on the 1-hour time frame. This indicates a strong bearish bias from institutional players. The market is expected to either retest from the Demand Zone at 1907-1903 or continue its downward trajectory towards a lower Demand Zone at 1894-1889. Despite the presence of liquidity at higher supply zones (1923-1930), the strength of the bearish run suggests a continued downward movement.

The market may or may not retest from the 1907-1903 area to grab more liquidity before moving upwards to the most recent unmitigated supply zone at 1918-1920.

Alternatively, the market could continue its bearish run into a lower Demand Zone at 1894-1889.

Immediate Supply Zone: 1918-1920
Higher Supply Zones: 1923-1930
Mega Supply Zone: 1934-1953

While there is liquidity at these higher supply zones, the strength of the bearish run suggests that the market is more likely to continue in a downward direction.

Given the current market conditions and institutional bias, traders should exercise caution when considering long positions. Short positions appear to be more aligned with the market sentiment. However, it is crucial to keep an eye on the aforementioned demand and supply zones for potential reversals or continuations.

Disclaimer
Financial markets are risky and contain wins and losses. All the ideas shared here are in no means financial advice, and it is not necessary that we take these trades. For each trader, it is necessary to analyze the market before executing any trades. Only if my shared ideas match with your analysis and go in accordance with your personal trading strategy, then you may use it.

Being passionate about this market, it gives me absolute pleasure to analyze the markets, but even after sharing these ideas, I always wait for the market to show me a clear path.

Also, the market is in no way bound to return to a supply or demand zone. Sometimes the trend gets extended and continues to even lower or higher places in whatever direction the market has started trending.

Always watch the Market sentiment, BoS, Supply and Demand Zones, and clear Price action on lower timeframes to decide when to enter the market.

I wish everyone great success in trading and learning the markets.

Good Luck.

13 Eyl 2023

Not

Institutional sentiment is currently leaning strongly bearish, indicating heightened caution for traders. It's plausible that the market may not revisit the recent supply zone at 1918 AED, opting instead for a more precipitous decline. Traders are advised to focus on sell-side opportunities, particularly if price action confirms another Break of Structure (BOS). Exercise additional caution around the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, as the market may exhibit wicks above key levels to trap buyers.

13 Eyl 2023

Not

If the market maintain its upward trajectory, a liquidity grab at the 1918 level is conceivable. However, given the significant bearish pressure exerted by institutional players, it appears more likely that the market will breach the 1907 support level and continue its descent toward the next demand zone, ranging from 1895 to 1888

13 Eyl 2023

Not

The gold market is currently exhibiting a complex interplay of forces. Despite testing the demand zone at 1907-1903, it has shown resilience by not breaking below this critical level.

Instead, it wicked and returned to a consolidation phase. Interestingly, the market has yet to reach the supply zone on the hourly chart at 1918-1919. If this stalling continues into tomorrow, it's likely we'll see a tap into this supply zone.

On the daily time frame, the bias remains bearish. However, it's important to note that both institutional and retail players are in a tug of war, leading to the current consolidation phase.

Given this landscape, my strategy is focused on sell positions only. For the market to be considered genuinely bullish, it would need to break above the 1950 level, a scenario that seems unlikely at the moment.

Today's market presented additional complexities with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This led the Dollar Index (DXY) to approach the 140 zone, touching the gap at 140 - 150 zone in DXY that initially signaled a potential fall for gold. However, both DXY and gold experienced wicks only at tour desired zones, settling back into a ranging market.

In such ranging markets, my approach is to utilize only scalping system with calculated risk management.

While my daily target is typically to achieve 1% of my equity, today's market conditions limited my gains to 0.5%. These gains were achieved solely through selling scalps, as I chose to stay out of the market's choppiness.

Looking ahead, the market's direction may remain ambiguous until the release of tomorrow's U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m and Unemployment Claims data.

My current outlook leans toward a bearish run post news, but as always in trading, it's a game of wait and see.

14 Eyl 2023

İşlem elle kapatılmış

Market Analysis Update: Confirmation of Gold's Downward Trajectory

I am pleased to report that the gold market has finally moved in the direction I had anticipated two days ago. My analysis remains pertinent, as I continue to expect a downward trend in the market, targeting the 1894 - 1889 Demand Zone. However, in light of evolving market conditions, I will be closing this particular thread and will publish a new, updated analysis.

Key Learnings from Self Directed Market Analysis

When I initially shared my market analysis, there was an expectation for immediate market movement.

However, it's crucial to understand that financial markets, including the gold market, operate on their own timelines. Markets often go through multiple liquidity grabs on lower timeframes before aligning with larger trends. This process can span days, if not weeks, and patience is essential for accurate and profitable trading.