Silver in Euro Terms Appears Ready to Push Up to 16.82-16.85
The structure in Silver/Euro looks cleanly impulsive since December (though wave 1 was so rapid that it was not discernibly segmented). It appears a 4th wave has been developing as a bullish triangle.
Whether I use the length of wave 1 from the base of wave 4 or use the potential post-triangle thrust from what I suspect is the end of wave E (down) of the bullish triangle at 14.492, the result is the nearly the same for the projected high of wave 5, which is the range between EUR 16.82 and 16.85.
This wave 5 in Euro terms would correspond to the extended wave E upward in the (bearish) triangle in the USD chart (the whole structure since December has been a triangle in the USD chart). Presuming a heavy retracement thereafter, Silver would stay above the December low in Euro terms and hit a lower low in USD terms.
In order to maintain the bearish triangle view in Silver/USD terms, the maximum height of wave E (up) would be $18.461. In order for Silver in both EUR and USD terms to simultaneously reach the aforementioned peak at these respective price levels (EUR 16.85 and USD 18.46), then the implication is that the EUR/USD exchange rate will fall to 1.095 or so to allow them to coincide. That seems conceivable as well, as the DXY (USD Index) has already traced out a complete-looking ABC correction.
In line with that exchange rate deviation, and presuming the above patterns develop as I suspect they will, I am also suspecting a following .786 retracement in Silver/Euro. That is because a subsequent .786 retracement to the level of EUR 12.465 (i.e. $13.655 at EUR/USD 1.0955) would rather precisely meet my low target for Silver/USD which is around $13.70 following the bearish triangle thrust down.
Whether I use the length of wave 1 from the base of wave 4 or use the potential post-triangle thrust from what I suspect is the end of wave E (down) of the bullish triangle at 14.492, the result is the nearly the same for the projected high of wave 5, which is the range between EUR 16.82 and 16.85.
This wave 5 in Euro terms would correspond to the extended wave E upward in the (bearish) triangle in the USD chart (the whole structure since December has been a triangle in the USD chart). Presuming a heavy retracement thereafter, Silver would stay above the December low in Euro terms and hit a lower low in USD terms.
In order to maintain the bearish triangle view in Silver/USD terms, the maximum height of wave E (up) would be $18.461. In order for Silver in both EUR and USD terms to simultaneously reach the aforementioned peak at these respective price levels (EUR 16.85 and USD 18.46), then the implication is that the EUR/USD exchange rate will fall to 1.095 or so to allow them to coincide. That seems conceivable as well, as the DXY (USD Index) has already traced out a complete-looking ABC correction.
In line with that exchange rate deviation, and presuming the above patterns develop as I suspect they will, I am also suspecting a following .786 retracement in Silver/Euro. That is because a subsequent .786 retracement to the level of EUR 12.465 (i.e. $13.655 at EUR/USD 1.0955) would rather precisely meet my low target for Silver/USD which is around $13.70 following the bearish triangle thrust down.
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