2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 16 (1.3313 BTC)

Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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From day 2: “This challenge is either going to get started with a bang or I am going to dig myself into a deep hole with the positions opened today. Only time will tell!”

Well...time sure is telling and she is kind of being a bitch!

These next few days are going to be absolutely critical for me. The S&P 500 is at the threshold that acted as support for 10 months in 2018. It stands to reason that it should act as strong resistance on the first throwback, especially due to being overbought based on multiple metrics.

If it smashes through $2,650 then my mind will be blow.

The Turkish Lira has been all over the news today due to Donald Trump threatening to “economically devastate” the country if Erdogan doesn't fall in line. USD:TRY immediately dumped 1.83% and retested the phase 3 trendline.

If the weekly closes below the trendline then it is all over for my favorite long of 2019. I still remain confident that won’t happen but it is a little unnerving watching my two large positions testing the major areas or resistance / support that I have been watching.

Based on my calculations if both stops trigger then I will lose another 0.7142 BTC. That would leave me with 0.6171 BTC in the trading roll for this challenge. I do believe that is still enough to complete the challenge on time, but that would sure make it very difficult.

On the other hand if my support and resistance levels hold then the following moves should put me well into the green before January is over. Either way I have been working really hard on finding my next positions and I will continue to focus on the process instead of the results. As long as I continue to be diligent with risk management then the results will take care of themselves.


Open Positions


Long: USDTRY

Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.182 BTC

Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.


Short: SPX500

*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
*1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656.

Price: $2,472.62
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.374 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC

Notes: Major horizontal resistance from $2,600 - $2,650. Stop set at $2,656. Really want to see this week close < the 9 MA.


LONG XRPH19

*1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market.

Enter: 0.00009135
Stop: 0.00008888
Risk: 2.7%
Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC)
Leverage: 15X
Unrealized PnL: +0.0099 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0046 BTC

Notes: Entry was not based purely on Consensio. Bitcoin futures curve in backwardation with widening spread is main reason I was looking to add to my long exposure. Also looking at confluence of support from trend and horizontal. Guidelines would have me waiting for close above S MA to start scaling in, but I really liked the risk:reward provided at today’s close.

Closed Positions

Long: USDZAR

*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%)
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position.
*1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA.
*1/11/19 DEATH CROSS signals final scale out. However on TD red 9 at horizontal and trend support. Leaving stop at $13.64 due to bullish 200 MA and support cluster. Negligible difference in risk, huge difference in potential gain.
*1/15/19 CLOSE OUT due to not feeling comfortable about my stop because it is above 50 MA that. Adjusting the stop below would have been unacceptable risk therefore I took my medicine and got out.

Price: $14.48
Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000)
Margin: 0.0157 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.075 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.086 BTC


Open Orders

*1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation.


Watchtower

XAUUSD

Notes: Testing major resistance level. Expecting it to hold.



XAUUSD

Pattern: Descending Triangle
Notes: Recent death cross with 50 w and 200 w MA’s. Tightest ever monthly Bollinger Band squeeze indicates huge upcoming move.



NFLX

Notes: Trend resistance. Unsustainable move. Earnings expected on 1/17.




ETHUSD

Patterns: H&S forming on daily
Notes: Daily Death Cross. Passing on short due to BTC backwardation + bullish L MA.



XRPBTC

Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over daily L MA following Death Cross. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long.