Hi Traders,
We have here one of my most favourite assets to trade. Oil brings great volatility and even greater potential for profits.
Oil could potentially hit $50 over the next few months. Global inventories have been in moderate decline that will accelerate by mid-2021, the chief executive of Vitol, Russell Hardy said as quoted by Reuters.
Thanks to Pfizers announcement last Monday on a vaccine candidate for COVID-19 that had shown a 90% efficacy rate during late stage trials. However, the vaccine has still some way to go as the sample of study participants the company examined at this rate of efficacy is limited, at 92, to draw any major conclusions.
"Still, the immediate price action after the news indicates how important positive news about the pandemic has become amid surging cases, lockdowns, and a rising death toll".
The oil benchmarks added as much as 10% following the Pfizer news. Furthermore, in combination with the weakening U.S. dollar and Joe Biden victory in the U.S. election, which boosted the appetite for riskier assets and removed the election uncertainty from the market.
Moreover, prices were supported through the Energy Minister of Saudi Arabia, Abdulaziz bun Salman, who said the OPEC+ production cut deal could be 'tweaked'.
Combined with the technicals, I feel that there could be two potential movements.
Firstly, we could potentially see a breakout from the bottom of the descending triangle, taking price arguably down to support at $40/40.5 If this is so, we will have to watch price action and volume at this price to decide our next step. However, there is a potential head and shoulders opening up on the hourly time frame which would mean we'd have a movement up to $43.
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