Every stimulus to a market results in return below mean.

Opec first started cutting around 39.5. These are the two long term scenarios, one where China and the US come to an agreement while China is weak and another where little progress is made.

I believe 35 is much more likely. China understands that any politician after trump will not be okay with IP theft.

Instead of returning to the mean when investors had a consensus about the bearishness towards the market, Opec postponed the return to mean during a period of speculation and leverage... the squeeze causes a break of the trend.