Oil at a crossroads

11 Eki

Crude oil was a touch weaker in early trade this morning, giving back some of yesterday’s gains. Overall, it has been a positive four weeks for oil, following a near-relentless sell-off from early July to September which saw front-month crude drop from $84 per barrel to below $65, or 22%. The last month has seen WTI add on around 15% from its September low. This has meant that oil has gone from being very oversold, as measured by the daily MACD, to a more encouraging position, where the momentum is now positive and to the upside. Of course, this gives the short-sellers a much better entry point to go back into the market on the short side once again, assuming that remains the trade. They may choose to stand back and see if Hurricane Milton can help push prices higher. Or failing that, if Israel’s expected retaliation to last week’s Iranian missile attack targets the latter’s energy infrastructure. And there’s also a third factor currently hovering over the markets, and that is what China’s Ministry of Finance may announce in terms of stimulus at tomorrow’s press conference. But these are short-term catalysts. Over the longer term, traders continue to look ahead to future demand growth, and where it may come from. In a report released earlier this week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that the market should expect a decline in demand growth from both China and the US, citing weaker manufacturing growth and industrial production from both countries.