Welspun Corp Ltd - Breakout Trade Setup

📌 Trade Plan
📈 Entry: Above ₹892
📉 Stop Loss (SL): ₹758 (Closing Basis) (Risk: ~15% from entry)
🔄 Retest Level to Watch: ₹844 (Wait for a retest for further addition)
📍 CMP: ₹872

📌 Why This Setup is Interesting?

✅ Strong Uptrend – Higher High (HH) & Higher Low (HL) structure intact
✅ Resilient Stock – Minimal decline during market corrections
✅ Base Breakout – Consolidated for 7 months, now breaking out
✅ No Overhead Resistance – Trading in open space with no historical supply
✅ Above Key DMAs – Trading above critical moving averages
✅ Channel Structure – Stock is inside a rising channel; 📌 Channel top might act as resistance
✅ Breakout Volume – Today’s volume confirms strength

📌 Market Context & Risks ⚠️

⚠️ Nifty & Overall Market just closed above the 50 DMA but is still weak. Wait for 200 DMA reclaim for confirmation.
⚠️ Breakouts are risky in a fragile market. FOMO can be costly—trade with patience.
⚠️ Position Sizing is Key! – Do not go all in; start small and scale gradually. If the market corrects and the stock remains strong, add later.

📌 Fundamental Snapshot 📊

Market Cap: ₹22,865 Cr
Stock P/E: 15.4
Book Value: ₹230
Dividend Yield: 0.61%
ROCE: 20.2%
ROE: 19.8%
Face Value: ₹5

📈 Pros:
✔️ Reduced Debt
✔️ Healthy Dividend Payout (34.9%)
✔️ Improving Sales YoY

⚠️ Cons:
❌ Stock trades at 3.51x Book Value
❌ Low ROE (11.5%) over the last 3 years
❌ Earnings include ₹873 Cr of other income

🛑 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Risk management is crucial – ensure proper position sizing & stop-loss discipline. The market is still fragile, and breakouts can fail. Always do your own research before taking any trade. 🚀