Macro Monday 26~Global Indexes Breaking Out

24 Ara 2023

Macro Monday 26

Global Index’s Breaking Out

As its Christmas Eve I wanted to do an early release for tomorrow and share something positive and Christmassy but at the same time share something of value, so here is a look at some of the major global ETF index’s and how promising they appear towards the end of 2023. A clear sector stands out.

Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF - VT
In brief this Exchanged Traded Fund (ETF) seeks to track the performance of the FTSE Global All Cap Index (the “Index”) which consists of 99% stocks. The top three portfolio components consist of:

1. 61% in U.S. stocks – The top 5 holdings within this segment are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and Future on E-mini S&P Futures.
2. 7.6% stocks in the Eurozone
3. 6.1% stocks in Japan

The overall VT portfolio is typically weighted as follows: Cyclicals (34%), Sensitive (46%) and Defensive (20%). This ETF attempts to provide an economy weighted global ETF product by leveraging the worlds largest economy, the U.S. with some protection against downside risk with defensive and cyclical plays taking up over 50% of the portfolio exposure.

FYI – This index is extremely similar both on the chart and in price to the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI). This ETF aims to track the MSCI All Country World Index also. You can look this up and add it to your ticker list for a general sense of the direction of global markets much like the Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF covered here today.

The Chart - chart features in heading of this article
Again, in brief you can see that we have a major breakout of a 3 year long pennant which is a bullish formation. We are also above the 200 day moving average which is slanting upwards (positive).

This Chart/ETF product gives a broad based view on the global economy at present however is obviously strongly reliant on the U.S. economy with 61% of the portfolio in U.S stocks so we will also have a look at a few other index’s that are looking positive at present.

iShares Global Energy ETF - IXC

This index seeks to track the S&P Global Energy Sector Index and appears is primarily invested in the Oil and Gas sector. This index is designed to measure the performance of 52 companies in the global energy sector. The company sectors include the following:

1. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Companies
2. Integrated Oil & Gas Companies
3. Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution

Integrated Oil and Gas makes up 53% of the portfolio, with Oil and Gas Exploration making up another 22%, and Oil and Gas Storage & transportation 10%. The remainder of the portfolio is other Oil & Gas equipment, services and derivatives.

The Chart
As you can see the chart is forming an ascending triangle and has made a series of higher lows due to upwards price pressure. Should this continue we should eventually have a breakout above the ascending triangle. We are now above the 200 day moving average however it has plateaued and thus we do not want to lose the $39.41 level which would mean we have lost our most recent higher low and would also confirm we have lost the diagonal support line. For now it is positive and we have price pushing higher with higher lows each month.



Global X FinTech ETF - FINX

The Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the performance of the Indxx Global FinTech Thematic Index. These are companies that are involved in the development and use of financial technology (FinTech).

The ETF seeks to provide exposure to companies at the forefront of financial technology innovation, including those involved in payment processing, digital banking, blockchain technology, peer-to-peer lending, and other disruptive financial services.
Interestingly, Coinbase Global COIN is its largest holding at 9%, then Intuit Inc INTU at 8% and Fiserv Inc FI at 6%. Other notables are PayPal, Fidelity and Block which are all in the top 10 holdings making up about 4 – 5% of the portfolio each.

This is a fascinating little index that gives you exposure to some of the more established financial entities whilst also providing exposure to the trending innovative financial tech plays. One extra thing I like about this tracked Index is that it is 51% exposed to Information Technology but then you have c.40% in Financials, something people just cannot do without.

The Chart
We have a breakout of a long running descending wedge. Price has fallen c. 65% from the highs made a series of lower lows and has now broken out of the wedge and strongly broken above the 200 day moving average. As I always say, an entry off the 200 DSAM is usually ideal but we have a long term potential change of direction here on the chart could be a signal for FinTech playing a major role over the coming decade in finance. This leads me to my last chart of the day.



Global X Blockchain ETF - BKCH

The Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH) is an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the Indxx Blockchain Index. This ) The ETF seeks to invest in companies positioned to benefit from the increased adoption of blockchain technology, including companies in digital asset mining, blockchain & digital asset transactions, blockchain applications, blockchain & digital asset hardware, and blockchain & digital asset integration.

Earlier this year I spotted a very promising opportunity in the Cleanspark Inc CLSK Chart, I checked the major components of this ETF only to find CLSK as a top three holding making up 12% of the portfolio weighting in the ETF, this helped confirm my conviction to place a trade. Since investing and sharing the original chart this stock has increased >100%+. As I noted above, when you see large institutional indexes/or tracked indexes showing a lot of faith in a company and putting their money where their mouth is with these sorts of weightings, it can be a confirmation signal after finding a brilliant looking chart. Marathon Digital MARA is the largest holding in the ETF at 17% and Coinbase comes at 2nd place at 14%. The remainder of the portfolio is collection of other blockchain related firms including PayPal, Block, Cipher Mining, Nvidia, Robinhood, Bakkt holdings, Galaxy Digital…I think you get the picture.

The Chart
This chart is very similar to the Fintech Chart however it has some subtle differences that make it a more favorable chart. The 200 DSMA is clearly on the ascend for a number of months and appears to have demonstrated itself as support. We have higher lows and now a higher high…. which says a lot. We also have the obvious breakout from the pennant. All in All this is beautiful looking chart however we should note that we had a strong pull back in summer 2023 and we could have another from the $60 level. If you are placing bids on this chart it should be for the long haul and as always, an ideal entry is off the 200 DSMA or your Dollar Cost Averaging for a long term hold.



These are a few of the charts that I track closely but rarely talk about, some of the major holdings in these stocks helped lead some of my investment decisions this year. If big money and funds are investing in a company or sector where the chart is also looking good, its was always an indication to me that money could be flowing towards these stocks, especially when making up such large positions within these large index funds.

If you enjoyed me covering index and the inferences drawn from them let me know and I’ll share some of the others I track.

Folks things are looking really good for the long term on all the above global indexes

Happy Christmas Everyone

PUKA