Vix

Since January there hasn't been one reason for this thing to break out; NOT.ONE.

CPI coming in better than expected
PCE coming in as expected or better than
PPI Coming in as expected or better than
Powell talking a hawkish game but only raising 25bps

Even the ADP came in lower ...


With that being said for the sake of common sense now I'll get to the technicals.

Forming a bullish wedge here on the chart with bullish divergence on the RSI.

Hourly RSI over sold but that could just lead to a pop to the 20ma.

So that brings us back to this daily wedge pattern. sometimes patterns need Catalyst or "News" to breakout; I thought today's rate hike would be that Catalyst. Looking ahead , besides ECB rate decision tomorrow, and Fridays January unemployment I don't see a Catalyst coming in the next week to make this breakout.

Sometimes there is just a cycle correction like what happens after the summer months in early Sept and sometimes in mid to late Feb.

For now we wait an see , if vix loses support here, we head back. To 16.50 which is its yearly trendline support

Yorum:

Formed a hammer here. Higher the market went , higher the vix went. Still needs to break over 20.00 and hold or this is just a dead cat bounce in order for equities to take a breather