Vale:The Wait and See Approach

Vale has been in a 4+ year long down trend. The good news is Vale put in a very strong bullish candle two weeks ago on huge volume, the bad news is Vale has followed that up with a reversal candle after failing to take out heavy resistance at the $9 level. Despite these reversal signs, it is possible for Vale to take a bounce to the upper trend channel in the $10-12 range which would set up an excellent shorting opportunity. Ideally I would like to see Vale close above $9 or at least make a very strong move towards $9 by the end of this week. On the other side of the trade, a close near or below $8 for the week would show a great deal of weakness and could be setting up for a drop to the $6 level.
So to recap: A close above 9 we can look higher, a close below 8 we look lower.

What should I analyze next? PM me or leave a comment below!