As I wrote yesterday on Twitter, we had the first signal for a possible start of consolidation or a pull back.
Finally it's time to try some counter long. As a regular basic rule, in case of a counter trend trade I open only 0,5 trade unit at start, maybe will size up to max 1 trade unit if I see further signals on 4H. As always, you have to calculate position sizing and the proper stop based on your trading capital, your maximum risk / trade and volatility (I use 20 periods ATR).
Daily: - Doji Heikin Ashi candle yesterday with both upper and lower wicks. Today candle is green (partly due to contract switch from Sept to Oct), haDelta further up. HA Oscillator switches to bullish. - PSAR hit. It will be also important to see a daily close above Tenkan Sen - Possible first tgt is ard 47
4H: - Probably the 13/Aug long wicked candle is false due to wrong data feed, Oil was never trading that low. If we take that out, there was now substantial lower low in last few days. - Ichimoku setup goes neutral. Weak bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross happened. Price is above Kijun and future Senkou B line. Actually Price enterred a possible buy zone. It is up to you how you enter long here based on your strategy. You can wait for pull back, you can buy now, you can wait for more confirmation (final Kumo breakout), but you have to make sure you have a proper position sizing and a proper stop loss (not lower than 41!) which makes you a nice expected risk/reward, and which on the other hand protects your capital in case the trade doesn't work.
Once more: risk- and money management is a lot more important than the entry point or the signal itself! The setup certanly looks better than it did on 29/July, but we never know if mkt tricks us same way (or other way) again, or if it is gonna work out well.
Yorumlar
GodziBear
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Agree with you. I expect a head and shoulder pattern or if it hit up of $56, could be a wedge pattern
splinterreid
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Long all in, to the MOON!
Kumowizard
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This I can't agree. The major trend is down and the strategic long term positioning will likely remain further bearish.
Right now this trade setup is a possible swing up within the major downtrend, so I don't suggest anybody to go "all in".
You always have to control your risk compared to the probabilities. That's why I personally do counter swing trades only with 0,5 - max 1 trade units (calcualted from my total trading capital under risk, volatility and max 1,75 ATR stop loss)
IvanLabrie
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1.75 ATR, I'll give it a shot. Been using 1 or 3 and both don't seem to cut it.
Kumowizard
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Please remember, it is not about the multiplier. That can be 1,5, 1,75, 2, or whatever. The thing is that you always have to have the same amount risk/trade. So you have to take the capital you have, the point value change of the instrument you trade, and the ATR(20) of the instrument. Then if you decide to lose maximum X amount / trade, your position size will vary subject to the total capital and the change in ATR.