FX:USOIL için wsbza tarafından Turning Point?

Turning Point?

It might be bit early to call the end of bullish rally since late December 2018. But we could certainly have a count that shows wave (C) of {B} has reached it's peak.

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But the above count does not necessarily mean the start of the multi months bear market, here is an alternative count

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possible Long-term wave count

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Divergence between RSI & Price, but price is still trading above the blue up trend line

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short-term count

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any push above 64.72 would argue either wave 4 or wave 5 is under way

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break below the blue wave {i} low at 60.04 would indicate wave {iii} decline is under way

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there are two possible bearish counts: either 1-2 or 1-2 plus {i}-{ii}

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The '1-2' scenario also has two possible counts
flat {b} of 2

triangle {b} of 2

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break below 62.09 ( end of wave (i) of {c} of 2) would indicate blue wave {c} is done

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The '1-2 plus {i}-{ii}' scenario

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also notice that price has failed number of times to climb back above the uptrend line

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Therefore I think it's less likely to see another wave 5 of (C). A solid close below $60.02 (6 May low) would confirm the above bearish counts.

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is wave 3 ready to explode?

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Short-term count

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daily chart

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we could also assume the 1-2 is one degree higher and count the structure as follows

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possible short-term counts:
either

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alternative count

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wave {iv} under way?

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wave (iv) could be a triangle

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possible short-term counts:
wave 3 done ( or if 1-2 = (1)-(2), then 3 = 1 of (3) )

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or wave (i)-(ii) of {v}

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immediate break above end of wave {iv} at $53.36 would eliminate the above (i)-(ii) scenario

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wave 4 or wave 2 of (3)

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triangle

or flat?

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triangle

or flat

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{a}-{b}-{c} flat with a diagonal wave {c}?

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or an impulse wave {c}

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possible short-term count

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possible short-term count

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either way

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let's see if guppy ema could trigger the bearish signal

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a solid close below wave (iv) low at $57.73 would also argue wave 2 has reached it's peak

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break below wave {a}(of 2) high at $54.80 would confirm the above bearish count

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possible short-term count

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key resistance at $58.32 as wave iv should not breach the end of wave i

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possible short-term counts

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note the rally from recent low at 56.03 is contained within a parallel channel

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triple zigzag?

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Need to see an impulsive decline to break below the end of wave x at 57.30

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alternative count

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possible short-term count

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possible short-term count

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either pink A-B-C complete (Y) or grey (1)-(2) then {i}-{ii}

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Note on 11 July, i assumed the following two scenarios:
Bullish A-B-C for wave (Y)

Bearish (1)-(2)

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the bullish count is no longer valid, simply because wave B of a zigzag can never move beyond the start of wave A

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possible short term counts

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bearish green {i}-{ii}-(i)-(ii)
OR
bullish grey A-B-C flat for wave (2)

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no change

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Complex flat for wave (2)

Simple flat for wave (2)

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OR even a more complex correction for wave (2) , e.g. double three combination where wave Y is a triangle

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Flat

or Combination

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there are some bullish possibilities

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medium term expectations

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space

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The start of a long-term bear?

wsbza tarafından

Feragatname

Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space