Never predict how the oil going to behave. its useless wasting of time.
But if you do - try to make it most unbelievable way. So people call you crazy bastard.
i've opened the small sized short in one of the account, with SL over 48.
i'll add to short at 47.
Plus i'm playing this with Jan'17 40 puts (small position).
That scenario could happen if:
1. OPEC will not make an agreement.
2. What if the saudi arabias plan is to punish other countries hard. Which is kinda possible (remember their statement lately).
3. Libya - pumping.
4. Nigeria - pumping.
5. Iran, Iraq - pumping.
6. Venezuela - sold its business to foreigners and pumping.