Oil Drops Below $68 Amid Trade Wars and Oversupply Risks

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Crude Oil drops on oversupply risks and weakening demand expectations

Key Events:
- Trade wars between the world’s largest economies heightens inflation and economic contraction risks
- OPEC plans to unwind supply cuts in April despite oversupply concerns.
- Trump - Ukraine dispute may disrupt oil's bearish trend if tensions escalate with the EU and Russia.

Key Levels:
Oil eyes a 4-year support zone ($63.80–$66), and the potential for the consolidation to extend above that zone persists.
- A close below $63.80 may extend declines to $61.50, $60, and $55 (aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2022 uptrend.
- A hold above $68.80 could cap gains at $70.50, $73.50, and $75.

Upside potential on Oil is expected to remain short-lived given the bearish implications of trade wars in tandem with oil's 2022 - 2025 dominant downtrend. A clean close above 78-80 zone may reinforce longer term bullish expectations.

- Razan Hilal, CMT

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