The start of a long-term bear?

wsbza tarafından

Güncellendi

equality between wave (Y) and (W)

Not

possible short-term structure

Not

break below 65.21 would send another invitation to bears

Not

the decline after flat was in three waves, so the flat could be a wave W instead

Not

I came up with a different count

Not

I am shifting my previous preferred count to alternative structure

purple count is my preferred structure

Not

Since the short-term pattern looks corrective, the July high of $75.25 could be broken again

Not

and of course, the bearish count may still work, but whether there is any trading opportunity or not, could be a different story
another push above 71.36 would suggest the triangle case mentioned above
any close below 64.4 could lead to further bearish potential (the potential that $75.25 is a larger degree top)

Not

possible bigger picture

Not

almost there?

Not

wave {A} done?

Not

short-term bullish count

wave {iii} has already surpassed the 1.618 extension (at 50.99)

Not

the 1.618 extension should be at $51.80

Not

short-term bullish count in blue, alter count in grey

Not

if wave {v} has ended at $54.3, we should expect a three wave correction which could drag price back to the end of wave {iv} ( note the pink {a}-{b}-{c} could also be just the wave {a} or {w} at the same degree);
if wave {iv} is still unfolding ( e.g. triangle (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e)), another modest push above $54.3 is possible although I think it's very less likely to happen.

Not

short-term count

Not

complex wave 2?

Not

the alternative count

Not

running triangle for wave (B)?

Not

a flat for wave (B)?

Not

wave (C) is likely underway
alternatively another zigzag decline to complete wave E of (B)

Not

the alternative triangle probably will not happen, here is my short-term guessing so far

Not

min target could be at 58.61 where wave (C) = 0.618 wave (A), ideal target is still around $63

Not

possible short-term count

Not

flat for wave 2?

Not

break above wave 1 high of 57.86 could indicate wave 3 of (C) is underway

Not

Wave (C) could be an ending diagonal

However, we could still assume (C) is an impulse wave rather than diagonal and count the short-term structure as below

Not

Any close below the red wave 1 high at 57.85 would increase the odd for ending diagonal scenario, although you could still argue this is a 1-2-{i}-{ii} bullish structure

Not

divergence between RSI & Price

Not

triangle wave 4 ?

Not

or flat wave 4 followed by wave 5, wave 5 should be shorter than wave 3

Not

wave 5 is less likely to move beyond $64.12 ( where wave 5 = wave 3)

Not

almost there?

Not

An impulsive fall below wave {iv} low at $61.8 would suggest wave {v} of (C) is in place.
Alternatively, any push above $64.06 would argue wave (C) has more bullish potential.

Not

if price move above $64.06, I would consider label red wave 3 as {i} of 3 of (C).

Not

There are number of different ways to count the bullish structure

Not

short-term count

Not

The decline was sharp, but it has not made any significant change to the overall structure yet.

Not

We simply need to see sharp reverse (within the lower time frame) to the upside to keep wave 4 scenario alive.
If price only produce bearish sideways( or any other corrective patterns), then we could refer to the above count and sell after the breakout.

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space

Aynı zamanda::

İlgili yayınlar

Feragatname

Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.

İlgili yayınlar

Possible Structure

Potential reversal pattern

a diagonal to start the downtrend?

Feragatname