Trade report of 19-7
Today's news:
NZD CPI q/q Is: 1.1% Expected: 0.9% Was: 1.2%
GBP CPI y/y Is: 7.9% Expected: 8.2% Was: 8.7%
USD Housing Starts Is: 1.43M Expected: 1.48M Was: 1.56M
Another negative figure which encourages the FED to raise interest rates.
Nevertheless; the U.S. dollar rebounded on Wednesday after inflation in the U.K. cooled more than economists had expected in June, sending the pound down sharply against other major currencies. Britain's inflation rate was the lowest in more than a year at 7.9%, according to data that will ease some of the pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates sharply. Economists polled by Reuters had typically predicted a smaller slowdown, to 8.2% in the 12 months to June, compared with the 8.7% in May. "It was the first time in five months that inflation surprised downwards, the trend was exactly the opposite," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington D.C. Jumbo rate hike next month by the Bank of England. Before Wednesday's data, investors had estimated a roughly 60% chance that the BoE would raise interest rates by half a percentage point on Aug. 3. That turned into a 60% chance of a quarter-percentage point increase after the data. "The dollar is getting a reprieve because it's the inflation data that really dictates sentiment, the dollar was tormented by cooler inflation last week and now it's the pound's turn today," Manimbo added.
Our actions today:
EURUSD : The Dollar plummeted last week after consumer and producer price increases slowed in June, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates after a generally expected 25 basis point increase at its July 25-26 meeting. But Fed fund futures traders are still counting on 33 basis points of additional tightening, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November. As a result, interest in the Dollar increased again today. Our buy trade has come under pressure.
EURNZD : the uptrend stopped today. But that does make for a nice entry point at 1.79870.
USDJPY : Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that there is still some distance to reach the central bank's inflation target of 2% sustainably and stably, indicating his determination to pursue an ultra-loose monetary policy for now.
AUDUSD : Our rating system displays the following: currently a score of 0, or a neutral rating after adding up all categories. First, let's take a look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the AUD has a long rate of 32.98% and we see that the USD has a long rate of 70.38%. This category gets a -2,
If we look at AUDSUND, we see that retailers are 55% long and 45% short. Currently, the AUDUSD gets a value of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very tall, we look at short, and vice versa.
If we look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise this month.
Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at the basics. GDP growth is in favor of the USD, inflation in favor of the AUD, unemployment in favor of none, and interest rates in favor of the USD. We put a sell at 0.66733.
CADJPY : neutral assessment after adding up all categories. Institutional traders buy/sell +1, as institutional traders prefer the CAD.
Retailers Score 0. Seasonality, +1. Trend measurement -2. GDP growth is favorable for the CAD, inflation is favorable for the JPY, unemployment is favorable for the JPY, and interest rates are favorable for the CAD.
We have put a buy in at midpoint of the high and low of this pair in recent weeks, 106867.
GOLD : XAUUSD currently has a score of +4, or a buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's take a look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the gold has a long percentage of 76.28%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 70.38%. This category gets a +1, as institutional traders prefer gold.
If we look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise this month.
Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at the basics. The index experienced higher GDP growth, inflation was higher than in the previous report, unemployment was higher this month and interest rates remained the same last time. Buy deposited on 1979.17.
NZD CPI q/q Is: 1.1% Expected: 0.9% Was: 1.2%
GBP CPI y/y Is: 7.9% Expected: 8.2% Was: 8.7%
USD Housing Starts Is: 1.43M Expected: 1.48M Was: 1.56M
Another negative figure which encourages the FED to raise interest rates.
Nevertheless; the U.S. dollar rebounded on Wednesday after inflation in the U.K. cooled more than economists had expected in June, sending the pound down sharply against other major currencies. Britain's inflation rate was the lowest in more than a year at 7.9%, according to data that will ease some of the pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates sharply. Economists polled by Reuters had typically predicted a smaller slowdown, to 8.2% in the 12 months to June, compared with the 8.7% in May. "It was the first time in five months that inflation surprised downwards, the trend was exactly the opposite," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington D.C. Jumbo rate hike next month by the Bank of England. Before Wednesday's data, investors had estimated a roughly 60% chance that the BoE would raise interest rates by half a percentage point on Aug. 3. That turned into a 60% chance of a quarter-percentage point increase after the data. "The dollar is getting a reprieve because it's the inflation data that really dictates sentiment, the dollar was tormented by cooler inflation last week and now it's the pound's turn today," Manimbo added.
Our actions today:
EURUSD : The Dollar plummeted last week after consumer and producer price increases slowed in June, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates after a generally expected 25 basis point increase at its July 25-26 meeting. But Fed fund futures traders are still counting on 33 basis points of additional tightening, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November. As a result, interest in the Dollar increased again today. Our buy trade has come under pressure.
EURNZD : the uptrend stopped today. But that does make for a nice entry point at 1.79870.
USDJPY : Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that there is still some distance to reach the central bank's inflation target of 2% sustainably and stably, indicating his determination to pursue an ultra-loose monetary policy for now.
AUDUSD : Our rating system displays the following: currently a score of 0, or a neutral rating after adding up all categories. First, let's take a look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the AUD has a long rate of 32.98% and we see that the USD has a long rate of 70.38%. This category gets a -2,
If we look at AUDSUND, we see that retailers are 55% long and 45% short. Currently, the AUDUSD gets a value of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very tall, we look at short, and vice versa.
If we look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise this month.
Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at the basics. GDP growth is in favor of the USD, inflation in favor of the AUD, unemployment in favor of none, and interest rates in favor of the USD. We put a sell at 0.66733.
CADJPY : neutral assessment after adding up all categories. Institutional traders buy/sell +1, as institutional traders prefer the CAD.
Retailers Score 0. Seasonality, +1. Trend measurement -2. GDP growth is favorable for the CAD, inflation is favorable for the JPY, unemployment is favorable for the JPY, and interest rates are favorable for the CAD.
We have put a buy in at midpoint of the high and low of this pair in recent weeks, 106867.
GOLD : XAUUSD currently has a score of +4, or a buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's take a look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the gold has a long percentage of 76.28%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 70.38%. This category gets a +1, as institutional traders prefer gold.
If we look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise this month.
Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at the basics. The index experienced higher GDP growth, inflation was higher than in the previous report, unemployment was higher this month and interest rates remained the same last time. Buy deposited on 1979.17.
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