WTI before RESISTANCE ZONE!
Technical analysis of WTI CRUDE OIL
The US WTI oil price shows a dynamic long-term upward trend. The last relevant follow-up buy signal in the medium term was generated by the listing at the beginning of June with the bullish dissolution of several weeks of sideways consolidation. Most recently, differences within the OPEC + alliance acted as an informational price driver. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could not agree on the specific conditions for an increase in the production quotas in August. Previously, there had been speculation about an upcoming expansion of production by 400,000 barrels per day with a simultaneous extension of the production restrictions until the end of 2022 (currently April 2022). There is now a threat of an expansion of the supply deficit with correspondingly further increases in prices. But some observers do not rule out a complete breakup of the alliance either. That would then mean the elimination of the current production restrictions and a price war, which is likely to put the prices under massive pressure. Market participants are currently interpreting the differences as driving prices. However, the situation is extremely uncertain, as the alliance can get together again at short notice and decide on the planned expansion of production.
Central hurdle ahead
In terms of the chart, the focus is on the long-term significant resistance zone at USD 76.88, which is within shouting distance. There the price had made a cyclical high in October 2018 and had turned into a dramatic bear market. Accordingly, a consolidation at this point would not surprise us. Signals for this remain to be seen, however. We see possible expansion targets in the event of an immediate breakthrough above this hurdle at USD 78.61 and USD 85.20. Looking to the bottom, the listing has closest support areas at $ 74.42 and $ 72.00. A slide below the latter level would, in our view, make a more pronounced correction towards USD 67/68 likely.
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa accepts no liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided. The information provided does not constitute investment advice, purchase recommendations or investment brokerage.
The US WTI oil price shows a dynamic long-term upward trend. The last relevant follow-up buy signal in the medium term was generated by the listing at the beginning of June with the bullish dissolution of several weeks of sideways consolidation. Most recently, differences within the OPEC + alliance acted as an informational price driver. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could not agree on the specific conditions for an increase in the production quotas in August. Previously, there had been speculation about an upcoming expansion of production by 400,000 barrels per day with a simultaneous extension of the production restrictions until the end of 2022 (currently April 2022). There is now a threat of an expansion of the supply deficit with correspondingly further increases in prices. But some observers do not rule out a complete breakup of the alliance either. That would then mean the elimination of the current production restrictions and a price war, which is likely to put the prices under massive pressure. Market participants are currently interpreting the differences as driving prices. However, the situation is extremely uncertain, as the alliance can get together again at short notice and decide on the planned expansion of production.
Central hurdle ahead
In terms of the chart, the focus is on the long-term significant resistance zone at USD 76.88, which is within shouting distance. There the price had made a cyclical high in October 2018 and had turned into a dramatic bear market. Accordingly, a consolidation at this point would not surprise us. Signals for this remain to be seen, however. We see possible expansion targets in the event of an immediate breakthrough above this hurdle at USD 78.61 and USD 85.20. Looking to the bottom, the listing has closest support areas at $ 74.42 and $ 72.00. A slide below the latter level would, in our view, make a more pronounced correction towards USD 67/68 likely.
Note:
Despite careful analysis, Global Investa accepts no liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided. The information provided does not constitute investment advice, purchase recommendations or investment brokerage.
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