EW ANALYSIS: Long-term And Short-term View On Russian Ruble

10 Eki 2018

Hello traders!
Today we will talk about pretty clear Russian Ruble. From a technical perspective, we see very interesting price action and wave structure based on Elliott Wave theory.

Let's start with Weekly chart:
In EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave correction follows and as you can see, USDRUB is turning down after five waves up. So, we can expect at least three waves A-B-C of decline where wave C is still missing, which means that strong Russian Ruble can be coming in the next few weeks/months.

Daily chart:
Looking at the daily chart we can see an impulsive five-wave rally within wave (C) of B, so seems like USDRUB has completed a flat correction and found a resistance at 70.65 level, especially because of a current sharp and impulsive decline into wave A/1 away from highs. So, what we expect now is minimum three waves of decline at least back to 61.61 area, A/1 - B/2 - C/3.
Intra-day hourly chart:
At the hourly chart, we can see a very nice bounce away from A/1 lows with five waves up and three waves of pullback, which means that wave B/2 can be underway and should be made by three waves a-b-c, where wave c is still missing and can be reached around ideal 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 68 area.

However, we want to say that Russian Ruble can be strong in the upcoming year, so we decided to share our view, just keep in mind that this may become more complex, so as long as it's trading below 70.65 invalidation level, we will remain bearish!

Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.

12 Eki 2018

Not

UPDATE 1: USDRUB went slightly lower into new lows, which means that we may see more complex corrective pattern that can stop around ideal 61,8% Fibo. retracement and 65.70 - 65.60 support area. Even if goes more complex, we remain bullish towards 68 as long as it's trading above 64.80 region.

2 Kas 2018

Not

UPDATE 2: After some consolidation, USDRUB can be finally headed up for wave c towards projected 68 resistance area right around ideal 61,8% Fibonacci retracement.

14 Kas 2018

Not

UPDATE 3: USDRUB came perfectly into projected 68 resistance area, so we should be aware of an impulsive bearish reversal soon. But only if turns back below 66 area, only then we may consider that corrective rally in wave B/2 could be completed.

16 Kas 2018

Not

UPDATE 4: USDRUB is trading perfectly as expected. We have seen sharp and impulsive reversal away from projected resistance, so seems like a three-wave a-b-c corrective rally can be completed. That said, watch out for more weakness back to lows, just be aware of intraday three-wave pullback. If from any reason goes more complex, we remain bearish as long as it's trading beneath 70.50 invalidation area!

26 Kas 2018

Not

UPDATE 5: USDRUB is trading perfectly as expected. After that impulsive five-wave drop away from projected resistance, we got a three-wave pullback of a lower degree, so we should be aware of limited upside here around 67.20 resistance area, from where we may see another huge decline back to lows (check weekly+daily charts)!

3 Ara 2018

Not

UPDATE 6: No big changes on USDRUB, after this intraday three-wave (a)-(b)-(c) corrective rally, we are still looking for more weakness, while it's trading below 68.37 region!