Weekly Short USD/NOK

18 Nis 2017

I am seeing a longer term move to the downside in the USD/NOK towards the 38.2% retracement at 7.80 as shown by the trendline parallels. It is also interesting to note the price action around the two previous rate hikes in 2015 and 2016, that the market saw one last rally before turning lower. Which as of now has occurred following the March hike.

As previously stated i am bearish USD and with Oil appearing like it wants to push to a new high around 55 or potentially even higher it fits in with what i am seeing on the chart. Any break and close above 8.70 will negate this pattern

Any thoughts or ideas are appreciated

21 Nis 2017

Not

Potential AB=CD completing at the 78.6 retracement, not a bad place to take a short, SL again 8.70

22 Nis 2017

Not

I think we saw the normal thin liquidity moves on Friday. I'm encouraged by the fact we held below the 8.70 level, likewise that USD/CAD held the the March high and Oil held the 61.8 retracement at the 55EMA.

I'm of the opinion that USD this week finally breaks lower through that trend line which has provided support on numerous occasions. USD/NOK is also divergent on multiple time frames aswell. Either way i think we will have a clearer idea which way this pair and USD/CAD will be heading

Good luck

4 May 2017

Not

Well this is pretty much last chance saloon if this pair is going to actually turn lower.