XAUUSD Short
Caveat - Note that Tradeview does not produce accurate scales. Therefore XAUUSD and USDJPY movements to be taken as floating/relative.
For this idea I have taken two safe haven assets, one being Gold, the other Yen. The blue line is the main chart line and reflects the XAU/JPY. This tells you from a safe haven perspective if there is a relative trading premium one "safe" asset over the other. You will see a very consistent MA trend line in the blue box. This trend line represents the equilibrium state. Over time we would expect a return to equilibrium. It has also been a fairly sustained period outside of the equilibrium state.
There are two scenarios:
1) Fairly likely short-term scenario is that XAU is down and JPY up. XAU and JPY have respectively hit resistance and support levels on H1 charts.
2) Fairly likely long-term scenario is XAU is down and JPY is uncertain. The rationale for XAU is that it is on a long-term down trend from 1400 levels, this is driven by global supply and demand dynamics. USDJPY is uncertain as in consistent downward trend since beginning of the year, indicating Dollar weakness and JPY strength. US economic data is stronger than JPY data and BOJ targets USD/JPY towards 118 by the end of the year. There is however a concern about impact of quantative easing in the US and the impact of flow of funds. This may cause selling of the USD and buying of other currencies (EUR post election, if Le Pen does not win) and JPY. Also with current Trumponics all USD pairs have been trading erratically and certainly his pro-economy perceptions may slowly be whittled away in the eyes of institutional investors who are naturally adverse to market volatility.
For this idea I have taken two safe haven assets, one being Gold, the other Yen. The blue line is the main chart line and reflects the XAU/JPY. This tells you from a safe haven perspective if there is a relative trading premium one "safe" asset over the other. You will see a very consistent MA trend line in the blue box. This trend line represents the equilibrium state. Over time we would expect a return to equilibrium. It has also been a fairly sustained period outside of the equilibrium state.
There are two scenarios:
1) Fairly likely short-term scenario is that XAU is down and JPY up. XAU and JPY have respectively hit resistance and support levels on H1 charts.
2) Fairly likely long-term scenario is XAU is down and JPY is uncertain. The rationale for XAU is that it is on a long-term down trend from 1400 levels, this is driven by global supply and demand dynamics. USDJPY is uncertain as in consistent downward trend since beginning of the year, indicating Dollar weakness and JPY strength. US economic data is stronger than JPY data and BOJ targets USD/JPY towards 118 by the end of the year. There is however a concern about impact of quantative easing in the US and the impact of flow of funds. This may cause selling of the USD and buying of other currencies (EUR post election, if Le Pen does not win) and JPY. Also with current Trumponics all USD pairs have been trading erratically and certainly his pro-economy perceptions may slowly be whittled away in the eyes of institutional investors who are naturally adverse to market volatility.
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