Supercycle or Collapse? Here's What's Next for USD/JPY
Trading Idea Breakdown for USD/JPY (12M Timeframe)
Key Structure Levels:
Current Price Zone: 147.67
Major Resistance Levels:
358.44 (Wave 5 Target/Range High): This represents the completion of the supercycle.
179.22 (12M Resistance Line): Significant midpoint equilibrium.
161.99 (Discount Zone - Wave 3-4 Pullback): Zone to watch for price re-accumulation.
Major Support Levels:
79.76-75.56 (Premium Support Zone): Base level for potential bullish accumulation if deeper pullback occurs.
118.75 (Equilibrium): Midpoint structure acting as current support.
0.00 (Cycle Bottom): Historical demand zone.
Key Elements of Wyckoff Analysis:
Phase Accumulation (1970-2012):
SC (Selling Climax) and AR (Automatic Rally) confirmed the range low (80.00 zone).
ST (Secondary Test) in Phase B showed consolidation preparing for markup.
Current Context - Re-Accumulation Range (2022-Present):
LPS (Last Point of Support) around 118.75 signals continued bullishness, aligning with Phase B support.
Wyckoff logic suggests price could aim for Phase D breakout and extend toward 358.44.
Elliott Wave Perspective:
Wave 1: Strong impulse ending near 120.00.
Wave 2: Corrective move down to 75.56, testing accumulation.
Wave 3: Extended impulse projected toward 301.03 (1.61 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1).
Wave 4: Potential pullback to 161.99, aligning with equilibrium.
Wave 5: Final target near 358.44, completing the supercycle.
Trading Plan:
Entry Strategy:
Look for pullback entries near 161.99 (Discount zone) or 118.75 (Equilibrium zone) if further corrective movements occur.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 179.22 (Range equilibrium midpoint of resistance).
TP2: 301.03 (Wave 3 Fibonacci target zone).
TP3: 358.44 (Wave 5 cycle completion target).
Stop-Loss Placement:
SL1: Below 118.75 (Equilibrium) if targeting mid-term bullish continuation.
SL2: Below 75.56 for aggressive buyers targeting the supercycle.
Potential Bias and Commentary:
Bullish Scenario: Momentum remains strong; the re-accumulation range suggests further upside potential aligning with Wyckoff's markup phase.
Bearish Risk: If price breaks below 118.75, a re-test of the premium zone (75.56) might occur before resuming long-term bullish trends.
Key Structure Levels:
Current Price Zone: 147.67
Major Resistance Levels:
358.44 (Wave 5 Target/Range High): This represents the completion of the supercycle.
179.22 (12M Resistance Line): Significant midpoint equilibrium.
161.99 (Discount Zone - Wave 3-4 Pullback): Zone to watch for price re-accumulation.
Major Support Levels:
79.76-75.56 (Premium Support Zone): Base level for potential bullish accumulation if deeper pullback occurs.
118.75 (Equilibrium): Midpoint structure acting as current support.
0.00 (Cycle Bottom): Historical demand zone.
Key Elements of Wyckoff Analysis:
Phase Accumulation (1970-2012):
SC (Selling Climax) and AR (Automatic Rally) confirmed the range low (80.00 zone).
ST (Secondary Test) in Phase B showed consolidation preparing for markup.
Current Context - Re-Accumulation Range (2022-Present):
LPS (Last Point of Support) around 118.75 signals continued bullishness, aligning with Phase B support.
Wyckoff logic suggests price could aim for Phase D breakout and extend toward 358.44.
Elliott Wave Perspective:
Wave 1: Strong impulse ending near 120.00.
Wave 2: Corrective move down to 75.56, testing accumulation.
Wave 3: Extended impulse projected toward 301.03 (1.61 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1).
Wave 4: Potential pullback to 161.99, aligning with equilibrium.
Wave 5: Final target near 358.44, completing the supercycle.
Trading Plan:
Entry Strategy:
Look for pullback entries near 161.99 (Discount zone) or 118.75 (Equilibrium zone) if further corrective movements occur.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 179.22 (Range equilibrium midpoint of resistance).
TP2: 301.03 (Wave 3 Fibonacci target zone).
TP3: 358.44 (Wave 5 cycle completion target).
Stop-Loss Placement:
SL1: Below 118.75 (Equilibrium) if targeting mid-term bullish continuation.
SL2: Below 75.56 for aggressive buyers targeting the supercycle.
Potential Bias and Commentary:
Bullish Scenario: Momentum remains strong; the re-accumulation range suggests further upside potential aligning with Wyckoff's markup phase.
Bearish Risk: If price breaks below 118.75, a re-test of the premium zone (75.56) might occur before resuming long-term bullish trends.
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JP - Unemployment Rate (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral for JPY.
Rationale: No significant deviation (2.4%) from expectations.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY – Watch for market reaction.
CA - GDP Growth Rate Annualized (Q3)
Outcome: Bullish for CAD.
Rationale: Growth (2.1% → 2%) aligns with steady economic performance.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD.
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.