USDJPY: HTF DT ANALYSIS (1D)

23 Ara 2024

HIGH TIMEFRAME DOWNTREND ANALYSIS

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Resistance:

• 161.03 (Major Resistance, distal)
  
• 158.33 (Major Resistance, proximal)
  
• These levels are aligned with previous rejection zones.
  
• 157.8650 (Sell Stoploss Zones)
  

Support:

• 147.7718 (Strong pivot level from historical lows).
  
• 144.8898 and 144.1802 (Mid pivot and buy orders zone).
  

Pivot Zones:

• 153.4900 (Sell limit identified)
  
• 149.7555 (Mid Pivot TP 2 target).
  

Trend:

• The pair is in a downtrend as highlighted on the chart, with key resistance zones being tested.
  

Pivot Highs and Lows:

• Pivot highs are aligning with bearish divergences, as seen in areas of DT (Double Top) confirmations.
  
• Pivot lows signal potential reversals near support levels, supported by UT (Upward Trend) signals.
  

Volume and Risk Metrics:

• Volume around Resistance 158 shows diminishing upward momentum, increasing the likelihood of rejection.
  
• Risk Index: 0.01853 indicates manageable risk levels for short trades.
  
• Reward Index: -0.01521 signifies opportunities for improved reward setups on lower timeframes.
  

PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT
Bearish Scenario:

• Rejection from the 153-158 range offers significant downside probability toward 147.77 and 144.18.
  

Bullish Recovery:

• A confirmed breakout above 158.04 with strong volume could invalidate the bearish outlook, targeting 160.00.
  

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Macroeconomic Context:

• The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained ultra-loose monetary policies, which contrasts with the U.S. Federal Reserve's higher interest rate stance. This divergence favors dollar strength.
  
• However, seasonal tendencies show that December often has corrective movements due to year-end profit-taking and reduced trading liquidity.
  

Economic Data:

• Upcoming U.S. GDP and BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes could catalyze volatility.
  
• Watch for geopolitical developments impacting the Yen as a safe-haven currency.
  

Market Sentiment:

• Investor sentiment is cautious.
  
• With the chart showing multiple sell zones and exhaustion signals
  
• Traders may wait for confirmation before heavy entries.
  

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS
High-Risk Opportunities:
Sell Entry:

• Stop Loss: Above 158.0416
  
• 157.06 (Sell Limit Order)
  
• 155.44 (Sell Stop Order 1)
  
• 153.49 (Sell Stop Order 2)
  
• Target: 147.84 (Major Support)
  

Buy Entry:

• Entry: Near 144.1802
  
• Stop Loss: Below 141.64
  

23 Ara 2024

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UPDATED PIVOT HIGH
—This revised Pivot High presents a +76 pip difference from the original analysis
— Verify if this revised Pivot High or the Previous Pivot High works with your trading strategy
— Limit Position Size Risk to 0.25% up to 2% of your Net Asset Value