If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signals or implements an interest rate hike—moving away from its traditionally ultra-low or negative rates—the yen could become more attractive to investors seeking yield, thereby strengthening against the U.S. dollar. At the same time, if the Federal Reserve moves toward a more neutral or dovish stance, pausing hikes or even contemplating cuts in response to slowing U.S. economic growth, the dollar’s yield advantage diminishes. This combination of a relatively more hawkish BOJ and a less aggressive Fed would likely reduce the interest rate differential that has been supporting the USD/JPY pair, thus increasing the probability of a downward move in USD/JPY.
For retail investors I would suggest approach a cautious stand on short position and wait for confirmation from institutional money
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