USDJPY – Key Support Bounce with Macro Tailwinds

3 gün önce

USDJPY is bouncing off a key trendline and 61.8% Fib zone (143.25–143.60) with confluence across multiple JPY crosses (EURJPY, AUDJPY, CADJPY). This area has historically triggered strong upside momentum, and the current setup aligns with both technical structure and macro drivers.

📊 Fundamentals Supporting the Move:
✅ US Yields Stable: US10Y is holding above 4.20%, keeping USDJPY supported. If yields push back toward 4.30%, expect USDJPY to retest 145.30 and potentially 147.80.

✅ BoJ Dovish: Japan shows no shift in policy. Despite weak Tankan data, BoJ remains patient, and no meaningful rate hike or YCC change is expected soon.

✅ USD Macro Resilience: Core PCE held firm at 2.6%. Focus now shifts to ISM Services PMI (Wed) and NFP (Fri). Markets are still pricing a soft landing – supporting risk-on and a stronger USD.

✅ JPY as a Fading Safe Haven: Even with geopolitical headlines (Trump tariff tensions, Taiwan, Middle East), JPY demand remains weak. Traders are favoring USD and Gold over JPY as risk hedges.

⚠️ Risks to Watch:
Dovish US Data Surprise: Weak NFP or ISM could drag yields down and trigger USDJPY reversal.

Verbal or Actual BoJ Intervention: If we approach 148.50–150, Japan may step in again.

Geopolitical Escalation: Any sharp risk-off could trigger safe haven demand for JPY, though this has underperformed recently.

🔎 Correlation Dynamics:
📈 USDJPY is leading JPY crosses like EURJPY and AUDJPY. The recent bounce started simultaneously across the JPY complex, with USDJPY slightly ahead.

📉 If US yields drop or risk sentiment shifts, USDJPY may lag gold or bonds but eventually catch up.

🧠 Trading Plan:
📍 Entry Zone: 143.30–143.60 (trendline + Fib confluence)
🎯 Target 1: 145.30 (38.2% Fib)
🎯 Target 2: 147.80 (channel resistance)
🛑 Invalidation: Daily close below 141.50 with US yields breaking down

📅 Upcoming Events to Watch:
Wed July 3: ISM Services PMI (key for USD reaction)

Fri July 5: US Non-Farm Payrolls + Average Hourly Earnings

JPY Risk: Verbal intervention possible near 148+

🧭 Summary:
USDJPY is positioned for a bullish continuation, backed by:

Rising yields

Resilient US macro

Weak JPY fundamentals

Technical structure respecting trendline support

Short-term traders can target the 145–147.80 range ahead of NFP, with a tight eye on yield and risk sentiment.

📌 If this analysis helps, drop a like and follow for more real-time macro-technical breakdowns. Stay nimble ahead of NFP! 🧠📈

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İşlem aktif

Top of that Trump is threatening 30 to 35 percent tariffs on Japanese which can can push yields further higher and Yen lower

Yen is already lower against majors but not against the USD

Japan and USA has not reached on agreement in last 3 months how they will reach to an agreement in the next 7 days

So more pressure on yields is likely