USDCHF - Thx Baby, I love u, but I'm tired
Am I the only one who has been chasing the USD third wave top for some time now? On all USD crosses it always "looks like" we may have had the top, but then no, no, no. I know this is a major USD bull trend, which to be honest I would love to re-buy, but I would also like to be in the counter trend with some small position.
On USDCHF chart we have a few exhaustion signs now.
Daily: Let me underline again, the Ichimoku setup is perfectly long term bullish. But...
Yesterday we had a nice push from the FED, which however proved to be smaller in terms of pips or %, than the one a week ago caused by the ECB. The price action of last 8 days (including today) is forming a small bearish megaphone... if you believe in patterns. But there are more interesting signs here. Slow Stoch in negative divergence, with MACD closing regardless of yesterday's bullish candle print. DMI lines converging below the ADX line. The whole thing is pretty similar to the price action seen in early June (marked with ellipse).
4 Hrs: Breakout attempt from the top range consolidation channel, but seem price is back to the channel again. No follow through. ADX still stays below 20. IF price gets back to the Kumo, then I am pretty sure the pattern will make some of the USD bulls think a bit. I think the ccy pair will minimum get back to this sideaway consolidation, but you know what can not go further up, will come down again. Anyway, do not chase the top! I tried on EURUSD yesterday, of course burnt myself a bit. Wait for the break on the lower side at 0,9320, and use smaller trade sizes as volatility is really picking up, sharp intraday pull backs and swing are possible.
On USDCHF chart we have a few exhaustion signs now.
Daily: Let me underline again, the Ichimoku setup is perfectly long term bullish. But...
Yesterday we had a nice push from the FED, which however proved to be smaller in terms of pips or %, than the one a week ago caused by the ECB. The price action of last 8 days (including today) is forming a small bearish megaphone... if you believe in patterns. But there are more interesting signs here. Slow Stoch in negative divergence, with MACD closing regardless of yesterday's bullish candle print. DMI lines converging below the ADX line. The whole thing is pretty similar to the price action seen in early June (marked with ellipse).
4 Hrs: Breakout attempt from the top range consolidation channel, but seem price is back to the channel again. No follow through. ADX still stays below 20. IF price gets back to the Kumo, then I am pretty sure the pattern will make some of the USD bulls think a bit. I think the ccy pair will minimum get back to this sideaway consolidation, but you know what can not go further up, will come down again. Anyway, do not chase the top! I tried on EURUSD yesterday, of course burnt myself a bit. Wait for the break on the lower side at 0,9320, and use smaller trade sizes as volatility is really picking up, sharp intraday pull backs and swing are possible.
