USD/CHF Top-Down Analysis and Weekly Outlook
1. Chart Phases and Wyckoff Elements
Phase A (Accumulation and Distribution):
This is marked in two key areas:
Phase A Accumulation (at the bottom left): Indicates the initial formation of the price bottom after a downtrend.
Phase A Distribution (at the top right): Indicates the potential for price topping before a reversal.
Key Wyckoff concepts in Accumulation:
SC (Selling Climax): The lowest point in the accumulation, showing strong selling followed by buying support.
AR (Automatic Rally): A sharp bounce indicating the end of panic selling.
ST (Secondary Test): Price retests previous lows to confirm strength.
Phase B and Phase C:
Phase B: Represents the price consolidation and preparation for the next trend direction.
Phase C: Tests the strength of the support/resistance and prepares for the breakout in the new trend.
2. Elliott Wave Annotations
Wave Count:
The chart includes Elliott Wave labeling, showing the progression through Wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v). This represents the impulse wave structure, typically seen in a trending market.
Wave 3 (0.89243): The critical third wave that must not be invalidated, as it would disrupt the Elliott structure. This is marked by the line labeled “INVALIDATION FOR WAVE 3”.
Fibonacci Relationships:
Several Fibonacci levels are referenced:
2.618 (0.88570): This suggests an extension level for Wave 3.
0.618 and 0.5 retracements: These indicate potential support or invalidation zones (e.g., 0.86657 at Wave 4).
0.382 (0.87179): Common retracement level within a corrective wave structure.
3. Volume Profile and Points of Control (POC)
POC Zones (Point of Control):
POC (3): Indicates a high-volume node where price consolidation occurred. This is an important area to watch for support/resistance transitions.
Volume Nodes:
These areas (shown with horizontal bars) represent where significant buying or selling occurred, which traders often use as benchmarks for future support/resistance.
4. Price Key Levels
Key Price Levels:
Support Line (AR Distribution): Found around 0.88121 in the upper-right section.
Resistance Lines:
0.88770: A resistance level labeled as BC Distribution.
0.89168: Another resistance level at the apex of the distribution.
Other Critical Levels:
0.83700: Marked as an “Invalidation Point” at the lower boundary, indicating where bullish scenarios are no longer valid.
0.86657: A potential stop-loss level mentioned within the Wave 4 corrective phase.
5. CHoCH, MSS, and OB Terms
CHoCH (Change of Character):
Found in the Phase B Accumulation zone, suggesting a potential trend reversal as the market transitions from a downtrend to an uptrend.
MSS (Market Structure Shift):
Similar to CHoCH, but specific to market structure breaking above key levels, confirming bullish momentum.
OB (Order Block):
Bullish OB (Potential Support): Found around 0.86551, indicating a high-probability area for price to react and potentially reverse upward.
6. Forecast Arrows and Future Price Paths
Projected Price Movement:
The red and gray arrows on the right predict potential paths:
A corrective move down to test lower levels (e.g., Wave 4 zones like 0.87116).
A final move upward to complete Wave 5 (above 0.89243).
7. Actionable Insights
Invalidation Points:
If the price moves below 0.83700, the bullish Elliott Wave structure would be invalidated.
For Wave 4, a retracement below 0.618 (0.85949) could disrupt the bullish count.
Possible Entries/Exits:
Entry Zone: Around 0.86551 (Bullish OB).
Target Levels: 0.88570 (Wave 3 extension), with further potential to 0.89168 (Wave 5 completion).
8. Key Takeaways
Accumulation (left) is transitioning into markup, while distribution (right) might signal an eventual top.
Use the Fibonacci levels for clear entry/exit setups, particularly:
Long entries near 0.86657 or 0.86551 (OB/POC).
Target profit levels at 0.87751 (Wave 4) and 0.89168 (Wave 5).
Phase A (Accumulation and Distribution):
This is marked in two key areas:
Phase A Accumulation (at the bottom left): Indicates the initial formation of the price bottom after a downtrend.
Phase A Distribution (at the top right): Indicates the potential for price topping before a reversal.
Key Wyckoff concepts in Accumulation:
SC (Selling Climax): The lowest point in the accumulation, showing strong selling followed by buying support.
AR (Automatic Rally): A sharp bounce indicating the end of panic selling.
ST (Secondary Test): Price retests previous lows to confirm strength.
Phase B and Phase C:
Phase B: Represents the price consolidation and preparation for the next trend direction.
Phase C: Tests the strength of the support/resistance and prepares for the breakout in the new trend.
2. Elliott Wave Annotations
Wave Count:
The chart includes Elliott Wave labeling, showing the progression through Wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v). This represents the impulse wave structure, typically seen in a trending market.
Wave 3 (0.89243): The critical third wave that must not be invalidated, as it would disrupt the Elliott structure. This is marked by the line labeled “INVALIDATION FOR WAVE 3”.
Fibonacci Relationships:
Several Fibonacci levels are referenced:
2.618 (0.88570): This suggests an extension level for Wave 3.
0.618 and 0.5 retracements: These indicate potential support or invalidation zones (e.g., 0.86657 at Wave 4).
0.382 (0.87179): Common retracement level within a corrective wave structure.
3. Volume Profile and Points of Control (POC)
POC Zones (Point of Control):
POC (3): Indicates a high-volume node where price consolidation occurred. This is an important area to watch for support/resistance transitions.
Volume Nodes:
These areas (shown with horizontal bars) represent where significant buying or selling occurred, which traders often use as benchmarks for future support/resistance.
4. Price Key Levels
Key Price Levels:
Support Line (AR Distribution): Found around 0.88121 in the upper-right section.
Resistance Lines:
0.88770: A resistance level labeled as BC Distribution.
0.89168: Another resistance level at the apex of the distribution.
Other Critical Levels:
0.83700: Marked as an “Invalidation Point” at the lower boundary, indicating where bullish scenarios are no longer valid.
0.86657: A potential stop-loss level mentioned within the Wave 4 corrective phase.
5. CHoCH, MSS, and OB Terms
CHoCH (Change of Character):
Found in the Phase B Accumulation zone, suggesting a potential trend reversal as the market transitions from a downtrend to an uptrend.
MSS (Market Structure Shift):
Similar to CHoCH, but specific to market structure breaking above key levels, confirming bullish momentum.
OB (Order Block):
Bullish OB (Potential Support): Found around 0.86551, indicating a high-probability area for price to react and potentially reverse upward.
6. Forecast Arrows and Future Price Paths
Projected Price Movement:
The red and gray arrows on the right predict potential paths:
A corrective move down to test lower levels (e.g., Wave 4 zones like 0.87116).
A final move upward to complete Wave 5 (above 0.89243).
7. Actionable Insights
Invalidation Points:
If the price moves below 0.83700, the bullish Elliott Wave structure would be invalidated.
For Wave 4, a retracement below 0.618 (0.85949) could disrupt the bullish count.
Possible Entries/Exits:
Entry Zone: Around 0.86551 (Bullish OB).
Target Levels: 0.88570 (Wave 3 extension), with further potential to 0.89168 (Wave 5 completion).
8. Key Takeaways
Accumulation (left) is transitioning into markup, while distribution (right) might signal an eventual top.
Use the Fibonacci levels for clear entry/exit setups, particularly:
Long entries near 0.86657 or 0.86551 (OB/POC).
Target profit levels at 0.87751 (Wave 4) and 0.89168 (Wave 5).
İşlem aktif
📈 TradingView:
tradingview.com/u/spacedevil/
💬 Discord:
discord.gg/QtU7s5kkgG
📱 Telegram:
t.me/spacedevilacademy
🎥 YouTube:
youtube.com/@Spacedevil0
🐦 X (formerly Twitter):
x.com/ALGOSNIPED
👾 Reddit:
reddit.com/user/No_Conversation7478/
📸 Threads:
threads.net/@spacedevil__
🎶 TikTok:
tiktok.com/@spacedevil_
📘 Facebook:
facebook.com/profile.php?id=61568284451571
İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı
🎯 Intraday Breakdown is LIVE! 🎯
I’ve just completed a detailed breakdown for today’s intraday outlook, including markups for key ranges and setups 🚀. If you’re looking for timely updates and insights to refine your trading strategy, this is your chance to stay ahead.
💡 What’s inside?
✅ Precise range markups for today’s market
✅ Insights to help you spot high-probability trades
✅ Real-time updates throughout the session via live
Join our community and see the full breakdown for yourself discord.gg/yrrFA7GUqA
Let’s make today a profitable one! 💼📈
Not
Not
How do you stay focused and motivated during periods of drawdown?Not
GB - CBI Distributive Trades (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for GBP.
Rationale: The drop to -6 (below zero) indicates declining retail sales expectations.
Best Crossover: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – Watch for GBP weakness.
US - Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP)
Outcome: Neutral.
Rationale: Slight variations in MoM (-0.3%) and YoY (5.2%) are unlikely to significantly impact USD.
Best Crossover: Neutral observation for real estate-related assets.
US - CB Consumer Confidence (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A drop (108.7 vs. 112) suggests waning consumer optimism.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, XAU/USD – Potential dollar weakness and gold rally.
US - New Home Sales (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral to bullish for USD.
Rationale: A positive revision (4.1% MoM) could support economic sentiment.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY.
US - FOMC Minutes
Outcome: Volatile; depends on tone.
Rationale: Hawkish tone supports USD; dovish tone weakens it.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY, XAU/USD.
Not
What value do you see in joining a trading community that provides personalized mentorship?
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.