USDCHF Forming An Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal

24 Eki

USDCHF has made a nice and interesting recovery since September, but so far only in three waves, with a recent reversal down from around the 0.8070 area, so recovery might have been just another corrective rally within an incomplete downtrend. As we know, if we don’t see five waves up from the lows, then the bottom is likely not in place yet. In fact, if current prices break the channel support and move through 0.7940, we should be aware of a possible retest of the 2025 lows, which could be the final leg within a higher-degree ending diagonal. Also keep in mind that USDCHF could still move lower even in a risk-off mode, as the Swiss franc tends to act as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. However, if we see a sudden and very strong franc in the weeks ahead, the Swiss National Bank could step in and take action to prevent it from rising too far, as they already expressed some concern about that in recent statements.

25 Kas

İşlem aktif

USDCHF is recoverying, but so far it’s still looking corrective up from the lows, suggesting this could be a more complex wave four rally — a counter-trend move still within the ongoing ending diagonal. Resistacne for this move up is seen at 0.8150.
It’s also worth watching RSI, which is turning down nicely from the overbought territory similar to past cycles since May, when the pair repeatedly turned lower.
Also keep in mind that USDCHF could also move lower even we have any sudden a risk-off mode, as the Swiss franc tends to act as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. However, if we see a sudden and very strong franc in the weeks ahead, as indicated by Elliott wave pattern, then the Swiss National Bank could step in and take action to prevent it from rising too far, as they already expressed some concern about that in recent statements.
So when/if new low is seen on USDCHF, then be ready for a bullish turn later this year, or early in 2026. Ending diagonals are known as reversal patterns.